AUD/USD Long Term Swing Trade

Looking at a weekly chart of AUD/USD, you will see a very nice bearish engulfing candle. It has engulfed the prior two weeks’ candles almost completely. So I think this presents us with a very nice long term opportunity.

AUD/USD Weekly Chart

Here’s the plan: I propose shorting a break of this candle and the psych level that’s just below it at 0.8895. This should allow for head fakes and false breaks. Your stop loss can be either above the 50% retracement of the candle (0.9059) or, better yet, above the candle if your risk parameters can stand it (0.9210.) I propose targets of 0.8610, 0.8340, 0.8175.

Keep in mind that your stop will be either 150 or 300 pips, so size your trade accordingly. No trade opportunity is a sure thing, so be prepared to keep your potential loss small.

Also keep in mind that we may be in this trade for a few weeks, so BE PATIENT. As Michael Storm says, we don’t get paid to trade, we get paid to wait.

I will be posting my management notes for this trade on Twitter, so be sure to follow me at @IsItCoffeeYet.

May the pips be with you!

Tim

Secret Asian Man 😉

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  • Timcameron61

    I sent Casey a chart to post, but he must be to busy…..we bounced slightly lower than my original target for the 1st motive wave……I am looking for a retrace here for a wave 2 in the next higher degree. maybe up to the 1.3050 area. if we make it there, I will be selling the rally like no one has ever sold before…… looking for 1.5750 on the pound…..aussie and Nzl may be the ones to drop first we should stay below 9100 on aussie and 7200 ish on nzl. if correct, the drop will be straight down from those levels

  • Artifact007

    Tq Tim, in your analysis til today, what do u think the wave of EUR/USD. Still strong to go for Short?

  • Timcameron61

    EW is best done on the highest volume, most traded pairs….I don’t trade the pound.yen because of the volitility and large stops required….I can do a wave count in short order, but like I said…If I am going to trade the yen pairs, it will be US and Euro……..knowing the the pound yen is going to go the same way, but I get more than enough pips on the other two…….

  • Artifact007

    Tim, may i ask u the wave in GBPJPY, do u look at this market wave?

  • Timcameron61

    I am a wave technician….and yes, most over work waves and count every up and down as a wave………waves have characteristics and will run to certian Fibonacci retacement levels and extensions when motive…once you learn those and your not in a hurry to count waves, patterns like the H&S, triangles, and wedges will complete the picture because you know where the exist, and what the wave pattern looks like inside them.

  • Masland

    Artifact007, I don’t use E wave directly. Some of the technicians I know sometimes intrigue me with their analysis. Often seems like overworking the charts, but, it has been amazing at times.

  • artifact007

    great, thank you. Do you use Elliot wave in ur analysis?

  • Masland

    Could drop .03 to the .85 area — see the distance from the neck to the top — .89 – .92. Sometimes predicts the potential drop after the H and S is completed.

  • Vickyc414

    I don’t think you know what you talking about, there are simple strategies out there much better than your, I am up 2820 pips in three weeks by following and learning from them, and as I said angry guy,you just full of it, read my reply,by the way last night I made 630 pips better than yours.

  • Artifact007

    Hi, may i know, after the formation H and S, where the market will move?

  • Timcameron61

    stop can be moved to 8995…….profit locked in on first position 55 pips still at risk on 2nd position…….pretty much break even now if it all went to pot…but no sign of anything but more profit…….I actually got a 3rd full position in off the retrace………

  • Masland

    The H and S formation is on the 4 hour chart

  • Masland

    Looks like a head and shoulders now forming….

  • Timcameron61

    BTW Vicky…..if you risk 20.00 dollars on a trade with a 20 pips stop and it represents 2% of your account……..you are still risking 20.00 dollars of your account with a 200 pip stop if you are risking the same 2%….you just trade 10% of the lots you would have traded with the 20 pip stop……..you are the one that has no concept of the math of trading……….have a good weekend…………

  • Timcameron61

    well if anyone got in when we went to the 9050 area you should be 150+ pips up at this point….stop can be moved to .9085 and there is more downside coming. I also got in at the aforementioned 8040 and am 70 pips or so up on that……have a great weekend,

  • Artifact007

    I agree with TIM, trade for longer term is better than snipe or scalp. Good werk Tim. Thank you.

  • Vickyc414

    Wow, i am very proud of you, keep going

  • Vickyc414

    lol, very professional

  • Tmcameron61

    my bad..I did 7 wins not 5….even with that math, I get25 net pips per 10 trades to your 10……my winning percentage is MUCH higher than 50% and I almost never need to absorb a 200 pip loss…….the reason you don’t understand it is, I trade off longer term, higher degree price action vs trying to snipe off a 5 min chart…..

  • Timcameron61

    you must be right,,,,let me re-do the math… if I am 50% right (as if size of stop loss has anything to do with being correct or not) you at 70% right getting 10 pips a trade with a 20 pip stop get 10 net pips profit per 10 trades…….I’m going to use 50% right 250 average win (low) with a 200 pip stop (very high, you’d have to consider I never move my stop or take trades with a smaller stop) 7 wins at 250 is 1750 pips winning…5 losses at 200 pips is 1000 so I am +750 divide by 10 because I am trading 10 time less lots thats +75 pips per 10 trades to your 10…..I do 7.5 times better……cut me in half again….I do 3 to 4 times better than you do…………..your not really going to try to argue that? as far as having a clue…I post exact entries with exact stop losses and exact points to take profit……you use a signal service…….HELLO I’m done with you and sorry to this website..maybe some in here may grow as traders if they truly look at what is being written……..

  • Vickyc414

    Wow, now you angry, you must be very professional because they get angry fast, your answer prove you the one who has no clue not me, if your win ration 70% good for you, if you risk 150-300 pips all the time you i don’t believe you at all, which all prove you just trying to justify what you saying.Thats all . Have fun and enjoy

  • Timcameron61

    BTW…anyone else reads this…study it and determine if you got in this gig to watch your computer for hours waiting for trades to set up and then get all amped up wondering if you should close with 3,4 ,5 pips or wait for 10…. the whole time worried the currency is going to reverse on you…….I got in to be able to hunt fish golf and spend time with family…..

  • Timcameron61

    LOL..you answer and prove you have no clue…… then post an add for a signal service……if I take a 200 pip risk, I am looking for a min of 4,5,6 hundred pips sometimes 1000 or more……thats 5/1.. REWARD to risk…….you take a trade with 20 pip stop and are looking for 5-10 pips TOPS……. you have 4/1… RISK to reward…lets see what happens if you are right 70% of the time over the course of a year…..7 wins at 10 pips is 70……3 losses give back 60….congrats! you made 10 pips…….lets take the same 70% ratio for me over the course of the same year….7 wins at say 500 pips average is 3500 pips…..I lose 3 times at 200 pips per is 600….I net 2900 pips of wins since my stops are 10 times larger than yours,,,we need to divide my pips by 10 that gives me 290 pips of wins to your 10….lets cut me in half again….I make 145 pips every time you make 10…multiply that over the course of a year sweetheart………..I win…..you lose…keep your day job…………..you better maintain that 100% ratio or your in BIG trouble….enjoy……

  • Vickyc414

    I am not sure if you know the math, the difference is 180 pips, if you trading standard that is $1800, if you trading mini it is$18, you may be trading Millions but most of us trade thousands or hundreds, any way Aud/Usd in consolidation as you can see. I am wondering guys have you seen http://www.wtforex.com, me and my frinds been following them, they are on target, I have taken 10 of their calls this month, i am 10 out of 10, may be you guys take a look instead 150-300pips spread. By the way I read all Forex factory analysis, 90% does not make since, it is wast of time

  • Timcameron61

    Well we made our target entry zones for the aussie…we actually went up to the 62% fibo which was higher than our 9050 zone because we didn’t make it down to 8800 as projected as a possibility… which is perfect…the move up is in 3waves. perfect again…feeling good……also, unlike the pound, we entered into wave 1 territory which almost assures us this was wave 2 correction and the pair should begin a steep decline. I have another entry at 8940 as this level will be a level that breaks wave rules to any move up more than just a retrace…….good trading…I’m out on this thread…thanks for putting up with me……..

  • Timcameron61

    OK we were put into our secondary entry on the pound, I have another at 5548 to get my 2nd position in place stop remains at 157. there is a chance this is a wave 5 and we wll be heading to just a lower low…..we did not enter the price territory of the 1st wave which I something I like to see. watch price action in either senerio we are heading for a lower low………btw, I took the aussie sell at 9035….close enough and I was right in front of the comp……….

  • Timcameron61

    vicky…whats the difference between risking 2% of your account with a 20 pip stop or risking 2% of your account with a 200 pip stop????????

  • Vickyc414

    150-300 pips stop, are you smoking something

  • Timcameron61

    dang…my fingers won’t work…….1.5750 is top end target for POUND……..next time I will proof read before I post

  • Timcameron61

    sorry, I typed swissy when I meant AUD…………although swissy is a very pretty set up too………

  • Timcameron61

    OK for anyone who cares…the pound a swissy are both the same set up, I think we are still going higher, but I have set my entries in case I miss the top (ish’s) lol… Based on wave principle and rules set inside of it, I have an entry sell on the AUD at .8940 and the pound at 1.5630 these will be my 2nd entries if the currencies make it up to our target zones 1.5600 for POUND and .9050 on AUD to short with stops above the highs on 8/06………these entry levels will have stops above wherever this bull retrace fails……..these are swing/position trades….don’t watch them, someone hand me a fishing pole and a diet coke………

  • Artifact007

    ok, i think i will post my entry below that area (9050). tq

  • Timcameron61

    9050 is of course an estimate based on fibonacci…….and thats assuming we bounce off 8800…there is a short term trade here for sure to 8800ish but long term swing trades are almost always best made off a retrace higher if you believe a currency is going lower. currencies never go straight up or straight down…if you believe to the bottom of your soul a pair is going to trend med to long term, wait…..get a solid retrace, and get in when you can place a stop above or below strong suport or resistance. in this case, if we can get 9000 to 9050 our stop will be above the high with 150-200 pips at risk for a very short time because as we break to new lows, we will move stop down to top of retrace we got in on…….don’t want to hijack the thread, just felt the exact number of 9050 needed to be addressed,,,,,,,and you never “must” do anything…..it’s your trading………

  • Philip

    That makes much more sense !!!!!!

  • Artifact007

    So we must wait for the actual short on AUD/USD at 9050 rite. That is the retracement for short.

  • Timcameron61

    or wait for the retrace to 9050 area after we bounce off 8800…….hate to say it Tim but your stop loss levels are guesses…..if people are patient here there is a great swing/position trade forming, but don’t sell at lows…sell the retraces, allowing you to place stop loses appropriately in the correct positions, at higher levels….then go fish or golf……….my .02