AUDUSD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, April 23-27

Sophia Todorova has a background in teaching and psychology, and as such relishes the idea of assisting new traders on their journey to Forex trading success. Technical Analysis is her passion. The charts speak, and she listens.

 

 

Friday’s close saw the Audusd currency pair holding firmly above 1.0200 support. The week ahead appears to be setting up for  a bullish run to retest 1.0550-1.0600, and eventually, perhaps to re-attain 1.0800 highs, if those levels give way. The weekly chart below illustrates the horizontal support line drawn across previous highs at 1.0200. This is the level that, if breached, will give the appearance of a left shoulder formation to equal a right shoulder at the same level, if retested. However, the recent price action is suggesting that this scenario is not likely to play out within the next few days.

 

The 4-hour chart shows a triangle holding above 1.0330 following a test of 1.0200 support. It is also worth noting that the pivotal 1.3030 level converges exactly with the .618% fibonnacci retracement level. This leads me to believe that a potentially strong breakout is in the works, and will be confirmed once the top of the triangle is cleared at 1.0450. I have bought the pair with targets at 1.0515 (daily trendline), and 1.0710, 1.1618 fibonnacci extension of the 1.0220-1.0450 up-swing. Only a clear breach of 1.0200 will change this general bullish outlook, in my opinion.

 

Thanks for reading, and have a pleasant weekend!

If you are interested in trading this with me, it is a good idea to follow me on twitter, since I am able to give quick updates there, and you will be able to get them instantly.

 

When trading always use a stop loss and calculate the proper risk management for your account. This analysis aims at providing assistance to the forex trading community here at Winners Edge Trading, thereby helping them to make informed trading decisions.

 

 

 Other useful blogs:

 Forex Crunch: Usdcad Outlook, April 23-27

The GeekKnows– Daily Commentary on Eurusd

 

 

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  •  You’re welcome!

  • Thanks for the mention 🙂

  •  You’re welcome, Peter

  •  Thanks for your input, Maria. The Aussie is currently trying to hold above 1.0250, and I am watching the initial resistance at 1.0315 to see what will develop from here. Good trading this week!

  •  Hi Herman. Pardon the error. 1.0338 is actually 50% and not .618. The swings were drawn on the 4hr at 1.0225, and 1.0451. Thanks, and have a great week.

  • [email protected]

    Yes Sophia I think the EURUSD need to break 1.30 to accelerate declines and send the pair to 2012 low at 1.2620

  • [email protected]

    I agrre with you Sophia, I think the AUDUSD will find support around 1.029 and from here it will go up to 1.0383 all the way to 1.0646. Will see how the market react with the release of the CPI. I think if the number is within expectations (0.5% to 1.1%) it will show small fluctuation, without breaking any levels. If the reading is better than expected it could push the pair higher.

  • Peter

    will follow thanks

  • Herman

    As allways, Nice artilce. Just wondering where do you get the 61.8 FIB at 13330 (You wrote 13030) do you mind just telling me where did  you start to fib it, on a daily, or 4H or weekly

  •  Thanks, Franky. It appears that the Aussie will indeed be under intense scrutiny this week. Regardless of my analysis, price action trumps all, and I will be waiting to be proven wrong, or otherwise. Happy trading too, FrankyBoy!

  •  Good point, Michael. I do believe that technically, there is a strong case for a bearish reversal. My ‘focus at the moment is for a correction only.  I will actually reposition shorts at some point, but timing is key. Thanks for your comments, and good trading this week!

  •  Thanks a lot, Jackie! I’m sure I speak for all of us when I say your feedback is much appreciated 🙂 Have as great week, and I wish you all the very best in your trading!

  •  Thanks for your input, Oren. I am also looking for a major reversal to take place; but as you know, reversals, especially major ones, take time to play out. I will be quick to change my outlook if  the levels I specified do break down without moving higher first. Happy trading!

  •  Hi Praiz. I haven’t done an article on Eurusd, but I believe it could test 1.3300 this coming week. I am bullish up to that level as long as 1.3150 continues to hold.

  •  You’re welcome, AB. Thanks for reading!

  •  Thanks, Andy..One way or the other, I believe it will be interesting to watch 🙂

  •  Thanks, Penny! You are very welcome. I’m happy to have been able to help 🙂
    I myself will be watching this pair closely over the next few days.

  • FrankyBoy

    Interesting analysis! My currency stength indicator currently shows the AUD to be -5 (range +7 to -7) on the weekly TF.  If this persists then I would expect a possible priece reversal if the aud/usd reaches the 1.0450 zone. However I will bear in mind this analysis and wait for strong PA signal when/ if 1.0450 is reached! Support remains @ 1.0315. Thanks Sophia and good luck!

  • Michael

    Will the price be pushed higher by the big 5% who make money in Forex trading only for the drop to be larger when the Reserve Bank of Australia reduces interest rates by 0.25% on Tuesday May 1 ?

  • Jackie W. Cox

    Hey Sophia!!! As always you have written a great article!!! I am always glad to hear what you have to say.I’m following you on twitter now and Casey also!!!! I look forward to reading what Winners Edge Trading has to say every week. Now that I’m following you I’ll have even more informed fore-x strategies. Thanks so much for all of the support at winners edge trading. God bless your families and the workers at Winners Edge Trading!!!

  • Oren

    I see a big triangle in Audusd, and price is heading towards 0.97. Countertrend might take price above 1.05, but I doubt it, considering that weekly R2 is at 1.0480. April high at 1.0465 which is also 38.2 fib of a move down since February also may act as a ceiling for price. A lot will depend on how deep will be now push below 1.03. If price will go below 1.0275, I doubt it can break above 1.05 in near future (eventually it will break above 1.11 and may reach even 1.20)

  • PRAIZ

    SOPHIA,HOW ABOUT EURUSD UPDATE 

  • AB

    Thanks Sophia for the timely warning.

  •  Thanks, JT… I will be watching that 1.0330 level closely. Have a word to the powers that be on my behalf, will you?…lol

  • JT

    Nice trade Sophia – only possible fundamental problem is china data sunday night assuming that goes well game on 🙂