EURGBP to Parity Part II

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Today we will be again providing free Forex analysis and FX advice…

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Yesterday we already summarized the potential FX movements in the currency market for all of the majors. The analysis is still valid for today so you can read all the details on how to trade the majors right here. 

With the majors thoroughly examined, let us now revisit the EURGBP (EG) cross.

EURGBP

The last analysis dates back from a month ago (Feb 7). And the EG has been behaving exactly as predicted (except the upside target was slightly missed)! That is always good news.

The question now arises: what next? How to trade the EURGBP?

It goes without saying that the EURGBP has been in a huge up trend.

But can the trend continue? And if so, when and where? Let us take a deep look at how to trade the EURGBP.

Detailed analysis 

The momentum and strength to the upside are still in force and it looks like the uptrend is far from over.

Here are the clues I am looking at:

–          Clearly we have higher lows and higher highs for a long while (since summer 2012)

–           The move up on the day chart was very impulsive and strong when looking at day chart candles and high MACD levels

–          There is nice uptrend channel with the impulsive wave crossing from the bottom of the channel to what could be the top of the channel

–          Fib targets to the upside are being respected (-1.618 of wave 1)

If we add a bit of EW analysis in the mix than we can conclude that:

–          We are in a wave 4 of wave 3

–          This means we should expect a wave 5 of 3, a wave 4 and then a wave 5

–          Or in other words 2 more waves to the upside

MAR 6 EURGBP DAY

Trend line

Despite the nice impulsive move up and great trend channel, the EG did break the single trend line by going sideways passively. We can conclude that:

–          The EG did not find power or buying strength at expected support

–          The impulsive move up is most likely over

When and where to expect up side?

When looking at the trend channel on the screenshot, the currency seems to be at the upper end of the trend channel. It also looks like the currency is in a wave 4, which are most of the time lengthy, flat and drawn out type of corrections.

Because of that I am expecting the following:

–          A bounce off of the 382 Fibonacci retracement level (+/- 0.85)

–          A move up from that 382 Fib to the -0.272 target (+/- .90)

–          Because of the single trend line break, I expect the correction to be long (for the moment)

–          Most likely there will be confluence with the middle trend line before the uptrend continues

The trade to the upside of course would be a great 500 pip move.

MAR 6 EURGBP DAY 2

If I see any reversal candle stick patterns in that region I will be hunting for a long.

Of course if the top were to be broken before the 382 gets hit, then my current expectations are invalidated and the currency is most likely continuing further north. I would especially be keen on a retest of the broken top before trading it though.

This is my Forex analysis, FX prediction of the day, and my current plan on how to trade the EURGBP

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