Can’t Stop the Euro, Can’t Help the Yen…

The Euro continues to climb and the Yen continues to crash… WOW:

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  • Fabrice Goeyvaerts

    Usually, I write: “Great analysis, Nathan”. This time it’s:”Great comment, Paul” !!!

    I totally agree whit what you said about Nathan. Days in advanced he announced his intention to all of us and without holding back acted like he wanted.

    I also notice that as he already locked some profits on his AUD/JPY trade he was not afraid of being aggressive.

    You speak about fear of losing … I know that very well, especially after a good winning trade because I want to “savour” the profits a bit and that’s where I become shy and refuse great signals whilst after a losing trade I want to get my losses back ASAP and I don’t feel that fear of losing anymore.

    I guess Nathan, as a professional trader, does the opposite. Aggressive when having profits and slowing down when encountering losses … but always committing to his strategy, just handling RISK to the perfection !
    Happy trading.

  • forexft

    Hi Nathan and fellow traders, I have personally tried to short the EURUSD 3 times in a row according to my strategy and been beaten 3 times in a row. My mistake is that I entered very aggressively whenprice action was stalling and I wasn’t waiting for bearish confirmation. I am now reluctant to short such a bullish rally unless I see a clear bearish signal. And overall I am a bit sick of counter-trend trading as I feel I don’t put the odds on my side, so why bother with it at all? I’d like to hear your comments guy! 🙂

  • AndyP

    Thanks for the weekly update Paul. I’m short GBP/NZD and have been for a week or so now. If you have a look at the H&S on this pair, the measured move now it has broken down is somewhere around the 1.62/63 level, which would be a fantastic trade as you mentioned in your update.

  • Paul

    Don’t beat yourself up about the EUR USD short call!

    You had the balls to share with your audience what you were seeing and why the low probability was off set by the high risk to reward potential, from your trading strategy perspective. Therefore you had to commit to the trade

    So it didn’t work out this time. That really doesn’t matter, your risk was managed and you are out now, not sitting with a painful ‘amateur’ draw-down, preying to the ‘trading gods’ for it to at least move back toward your entry level to let you get out at break-even. your trade execution was truly professional

    Its not the number of winners that is important (if you are a trader) its how you contain your losers and run your winners. How would you be feeling if you had spelled out the trade potential, but then failed to place the order, only to see price fall to thatweekly 50% fib., after the NFP was announced? You don’t know what price is going to do next, you are merely making a prediction based on your technical analysis. What you do know, is that over a long period of time and a very high volume of trades, your total income from your winners will be more than your accumulated losses, even if you are ‘right’ (the result is a winner) on less than 50% of the trades entered

    I joined you long on the AUD JPY (my entry was when you added) and have been watching for an opportunity to add. Last week there was a perfect set up (for my ‘add to’ strategy), which also offered potential entries into other JPY pairs too. However for some reason (fear of losing) I failed to act on these obvious triggers, despite already having ‘locked-in’ profits, which would have let me place my ‘add’to’ entry for a NIL net risk.

    So I am genuinely beating myself up for not executing my plan, where as you are only beating yourself up because you ‘lost’ in a public forum. However, you were executing your strategy, so surely the biggest loser of the two is me. Yes, you lost a predefined amount of money, but I have lost the potential to make money (potentially unlimited, as I generally split my trades and close one part out using a trailing stop method, so if it keeps going in my direction and smashing through resistance levels, I make even more profit)

    I hope you had a great weekend and I look forward to watching Mondays analysis. Interesting couple of weeks for the GBP NZD now, could bounce strongly at this all time low, break and then reverse strongly, giving an excellent ‘long’ price action signal, or just break and accelerate its way down. Who knows? Its certainly exciting.

    best
    Paul

  • Thanks buddy.

  • Ian D Edwards

    Great commentary, I am looking at the weekly charts much more now when making considering my own daily positions and ‘watches’ for the week ahead.

  • Alec

    Will monitor closely for the Gbp/Nzd. Nathan your analysis has always been great!

  • OK Patrick Tan, it is guys like you who make me make money off a rising Euro.

  • jim joyce

    thanks heaps guys

  • why did eur/usd went up even after good ISM