Movement on this pair also have similarity with EURUSD pair, if we do our research from the weekly chart, we can see more clearly reason for taking some short action on this pair for couple days or weeks ahead.
First, if you can see on the weekly chart, price is rejected at some area of resistances. 1.59951 area which also the monthly R1 pivot has been tested many times before as support and resistances, it is previous high and low.
Price is rejected with confirmation from price action itself by forming a doji candle at around that level which then follows by a confirmed trend change.
On the daily chart, what I like is to see confirmation of trend changed by the closing of the price below the MA’s median line (Bollinger band median line). This is confirming the bearish bias and opening the opportunity for us to get into the intraday trade, short.
Another confirmation is from the negative divergence that is forming on MACD. With an add confirmation from the crossing of the fast MA (blue line) and the slow MA (red line). Histogram are also giving us signal to go short by making more deep bar to the downside.
Now that we know the trend for this pair is currently bearish/down. Now all we have to do is to wait for the price to retrace, finding some resistance, waiting for confirmation by price action and MA’s crossing at the shorter time frame.
Safe trade out there…
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