Losing Month so Far

July has been a tricky month on the technical analysis side for me so far, here are a few examples of why:

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  • Paul

    Many thanks for the analysis Nathan, really valuable content as usual

    I was long USDJPY, took 50% of my position off when I reached 1:1 risk reward and moved my stop on the remaining part to break even, my plan being to add more positions long as the pair moved up. However that plan did not work out as my stop was then hit, still I did take some profit.

    I remain bullish and am looking for opportunities to get back in

    I have this morning placed a trade short on the EURUSD, as I see a 2X reward potential if it can get back to the lows from earlier in the week. I may very well be wrong as short term momentum is very clearly extremely bullish, only time will tell

    I am sorry to hear you are down thus far for the month, but as you know better than me, that is to be expected. The way I try to look at it is very simple arithmetic

    Assume I lose 2 out of every 3 trades and make two and a half times my risk (on average) on the winners.

    That means on average after three trades I’ll be up by 0.5 of my ‘risk’, if I take three trades a week, then I would expect to be up 2% of my risk each month and thus 25% up in a year.

    25% annual return is a lot, where would you be able to get a return that high?

    Now, that’s all on average, obviously some weeks and months will be losers, but it is the long run that counts. After 100 trades (a reasonable sample size), the above ratios should leave my account 15% up (67 losers = -67, 33 winners =+82.5: 33% win (82.5-67) =15.5 times risk up

    You just have to keep on consistently taking your strategy’s set ups as they arise, whether you are in a losing run or a winning one, because no-one knows whether your next trade will lose or win, you just have your average expectancy based on performance over time. If you don’t place the trade (through fear) you will never lose, or win!

  • Fxannie

    Really appreciate your honesty with your own trading.

  • samthepip

    learning as i go, i’ve read where some traders stay out of the market with impending ‘news’ like the ‘fed talks’. it would seem that these events would make the usd movement somewhat predictable .. it’s gonna make dramatic moves up or down over the short period of time afterwards, but with a more definitive direction after the ‘nature’ of the ‘talks’ is assimilated. i was curious as to why little was said regarding its impact on the usd.

  • pipcrusher

    head and shoulder on u/j

  • pipcrusher

    when i lose its usually because of the ‘super mario big ben opening the pie hole effect’……its very frustrating when this event takes place, and it takes place, in my opinion to often.