Hello Forex traders,
In yesterday’s article we talked and walked through the NFP effect on EURUSD. But what were the consequences for the AUDUSD? We are going to discuss the Aussie from multiple angles and analyze what potential it might have for the near future.
Please do leave a comment down below with your opinion of this pair and analysis! And make sure to check out the video with opp’s.
AUDUSD BEARISH TWINS
The AUDUSD, together with other commodity currency pairs, had a bullish day against the U.S. Dollar during the NFP release. But the bullishness was certainly not as profound as the EURUSD: +130 pips (EU) versus +90 (AU).
More importantly, however, is the fact that the AUDUSD closed its daily candle at major resistance (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and not above like the EURUSD did (close above 1.371). The importance of which was something we discussed in our trading room where we said we not price action on the 4 hour chart to have closes above this resistance before we can trade a pullback for upside continuation to 0.9920.
The rejection yesterday with daily bearish engulfing twins just goes to show how essential these rules. Does this mean the end of the bullish run?
END OF BULL RUN?
No not necessarily. All we have seen is the market respecting a major resistance. This does not translate into an automatic reversal. The price is respecting that level but can still continue with the uptrend to higher territory. What we do know is that price respects support and resistances and then it depends whether renewed interest in the trend can ultimately push price through those support or resistance levels.
KEY S&R + TARGETS
It is too soon to tell on the AUDUSD whether the uptrend will resume but important and key bouncing spots are the following:
1) Broken tops at 0.9480-0.9530
2) Daily support fractal at 0.9380-0.94
Price should use these levels as support but the real confirmation of uptrend continuation would be the break of the daily highs at +/- 0.9750. Then the bearish daily engulfing twins are invalidated.
The target of the uptrend is the 0.9920 zone, which is in fact the next major resistance on the weekly / daily chart. This level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level – a major Fib as this is the Phi number.
If the AUDUSD would indeed reverse into a down trend, then we would need to see price break below the trend line (purple) and a daily support fractal.
The AUDUSD could get some windfall from potential bullish moves on commodities, such as gold and oil.
Gold recently broke through the down trend line and it could be on its way to 1500. The upside break looks bullish but traders should and must be aware of resistance at the daily top at 1434, which is still of concern to buyers.
Oil too has made a sizeable downside correction but it is testing the bigger weekly bottom and a bounce off of that support is always likely.
Thank you for sharing this article with your friends, business partners and social media!! Wishing you Good Trading as always. And last but least, make sure to drop a comment down below what you think of the above mentioned analysis on the AUDUSD.
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