NZDUSD Decision Point (Comment Contest)

Hello Traders!

Today, I wanted to do something fun and helpful at the same time.

Please note that this does require action on your part, but the action is really simple!

All you have to do is look at the NZD/USD chart posted below and give an opinion.

There is NO such thing as a bad or wrong opinion.

(I’ve purposely done almost no analysis here in order to leave it wide open for your opinions)

NZDUSD_Weekly_Chart_Decision_Point

 

The Contest:

 

1. Leave a comment

Your comment will state whether you think the NZD/USD is currently an opportunity to 1. Buy into the Weakness for a massive reversal or 2. Selling through recent support for the next big bearish surge.

Even if you don’t think either one is a good idea at the moment, pick one and plead your case anyway! ๐Ÿ™‚

 

2. Give your own analysis in written text or using your own chart images.

Use Fibonacci, moving averages, pivot points, the moon and the starts, the flip of a coin, WHATEVER you want to make your case (even if you are not an experienced trader) and post it in your comment.

ย 

3. We’ll choose a Winner

After the comments come in, we’ll pick a winner based on the comment we liked best (maybe even multiple winners).ย 

ย 

The Winner will Receive:

3 Months of Access to our Live Trading OR 3 Months of Access to our Signals OR 3 Months of Access to copying our personal trades (their choice) at absolutely no cost.

 

Leaving a comment is Quick and Easy:

– You can either create a quick profile OR just use the “Guest” option when you post the comment for the quickest option.

Guest_Disqus

Remember, all you have to do to be eligible to win the prize is leave a comment with your own opinion about the NZD/USD (weekly chart).

We are not going to judge you on whether we agree or not. Or whether the pair goes the way you predicted.ย 

We are simply going to pick our favorite (maybe a few) based on our own liking… you could win us over with impressive analysis.

Or you might even win Casey over with some good humor.

Who knows?ย 

The point here is to make it fun and worthwhile and hopefully to help us all learn something along the way.

Ready, Set, GO!

 

Just leave your comment directly below.

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  • sir4xphd

    GDT PRICE INDEX GOES IN CYCLES… looking for a move up in n/u

  • Jeff Burke

    I would buy the NZD/USD pair based on US dollar strength

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for the comment. Appreciate it, but the idea is that you have to pick a side! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • ComiCultural

    Thanks. And sorry for my English.
    In the mean time, technical, I see zero opportunities. NZD was smashed, fundamentally speaking. But I stay away from such graphs. Maybe, some scalping on m5, if I am in the mood … Now, I am looking for a retracement, but I need a very realistic risk/reward ratio…
    Let’s lurk a buy on eurusd, someday… Or take a long … nap until eurusd / nzdusd a.s.o. make some retracements and then enter another shorts….

  • SilverEagle

    Wow. Price action, fibs, trend lines and more. Maybe I’m the only one trading this way, but I look at Relative Currency Strength before I pick a pair to trade and based on that at this moment (14:15 Eastern DST US) I would not trade this pair at all. If you can see the graph I have attached well enough to see the legend, you will see that the NZD and USD are both pretty much neutral. No spread = No trade.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Richard, I appreciate your thoughts. Thanks!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi, thanks for the comment… Good analysis.

  • Richard

    I’d trade it short term bearish to the lower channel where I’d take profit. It’s already got enough history of recent down movement to have higher prob of continuing that, than reversing at current mid level of channel. I’d choose a stop above to give reas win/loss ratio (>1/1?) & based on a recent support level which I won’t detail right now.

  • Guest

    pullback from 0.77924 to 0.807945 and continue to sell short at 0.74950..

  • faizal

    pullback from 0.77973 to 0.80745 and continue down for sell/short to 0.74930 may be i guess…

  • Prashanth

    The major trend is bearish. Hence it takes a lot to turn it around. Currently the pair is at a crucial support level. Looking from candlestick point of view. we don’t see any bullish pattern; on the contrary there is a black candle. Hence I feel it will be downward move continued.

  • alex

    Howdy ??? This is my take on NzdUsd…waiting for price to bounce & retest 0.8255-60 level & from there with maximum risk of 40 pips will short with 1st target being 0.8080 & next target either 0.7875 or upon price action. If the contest is about move from current level then I would say its buy from current level but definitely target is not going to be as high as it is shown in the above picture. But if the competition is about analysis then I will go with my analysis that I will short from 0.8255-60 level. Cheers fellas.

  • @iFxSaint – Twitter

    picture for reference

  • @iFxSaint – Twitter

    Howdy ??? This is my take on NzdUsd…waiting for price to bounce & retest 0.8255-60 level & from there with maximum risk of 40 pips will short with 1st target being 0.8080 & next target either 0.7875 or upon price action. If the contest is about move from current level then I would say its buy from current level but definitely target is not going to be as high as it is shown in the above picture. But if the competition is about analysis then I will go with my analysis that I will short from 0.8255-60 level. Cheers fellas.

  • NathanTucci

    Well, this is certainly the most interesting take on the contest so far ๐Ÿ™‚ … But one of the rules was that you had to pick a side… So what are you picking?

  • Avery Blalock

    I couldnโ€™t agree with Derek more. BUYERS BEWARE !! Anyone associated with Winnerโ€™s Edge should
    know that purchasing any product with a guaranteed refund of a subscription fee, such as โ€œThe Investment Copierโ€, that
    their guarantee is worth less than the toilet paper you wipe your ass with. A subscription to โ€œThe Investment Copierโ€ was offered with a guaranteed refund of subscription cost to generate a profit equal to or greater than the initial cost of the subscription fee one year from subscription date. During the first year not only did โ€œThe Investment Copierโ€ not make a profit, it sustained a loss of approximately 25 %. What percentage of my guaranteed subscription fee did I recover? Nada, Zero, not a penny of my $4,000 lifetime subscription fee has been refunded over a nine month period and numerous request
    for Casey Stubbs and Nathan Tucci to honor their commitment. Regardless of your business relationship with
    them, do not trust them to honor any type of guarantee. They have proven themselves to be liars, con
    artist and thieves.

    Avery Blalock, Sylvania, Georgia

  • julycotton

    I see the run down (and a strong one at that) but not “massive momentum”… looking at the whole chart I don’t see a trending market (timeframe aside). If I had to take a trade (on this chart) I’d buy right now and sell into the first push up. Given the move down I’d have a pretty tight stop and would be looking to close the trade when I can not when I have to.

  • Zennor

    “When I see many black candles it make me sad.. When I sad I spend money so I buy.”

    “No you fool you no buy.”

    “OK then I sell.”

    “No you fool you no sell either.”

    “Look market gonna either go up or down and I is sad right now and I need to spend money.”

    “Fool, you only have little money, you sell and market go up 200 pips and then down 600 pips, how much money you have now fool?”

    “Oh I is even more sad, I lose as stop is at 150.”

    “Why 150?”

    “I is poor and sad, OK I buy then.”

    “Fool, what tells you to buy?”

    “Nothing.”

    “What tells you to sell?”

    “Nothing.”

    “Then what you gonna do?”

    “Nothing!”

    “Correct you wait and watch until you see something to confirm direction.. Fool.. “

  • Felipe Penna

    The national fruit of New Zeland is the kiwi and while there is no national fruit for the US, we’ll just say that it is the apple because of the Big Apple (NYC). Due to kiwi’s demand for delicious drinks to cool off the summer heat, the production has been in full gear since June 4th 2014 by creating a lot of kiwi slushes and ice creams. Although deliciously searched for smoothies and a refreshing addition to alcoholic bevarages, the kiwi has been in decline since July 10th 2014 due to overproduction.

    The ambition of conquering summer’s refreshness and the lack of studying its competition, the apple with its apple cider margaritas, green apple martinis and sparkling apple cider sangrias, kiwi has been suffering from lack of demand and over supply. It’s been so bad that it’s been nearly two months that kiwi’s best product, kiwi-mojitos, has been dropping in rank for “the best drink to forget about our jobs in a global meltdown” category. It is down more than 61.8% of its peak. Supporters have been heart broken in every level.

    While kiwi’s competitor, the apple with its caramel apple shots, has been in high demand for its fast drunkness effect and affordability. Apple’s understanding of market dynamics and consumer’s desires for legal ways to intoxicate themselves has put them in the lead for summer’s refreshness. But summer is over and we have reached a very important level where apple’s lead can continue or kiwi can come back with new refreshing ways to conquer market shares.

    Nobody really knows what the future brings, so we can only speculate. For the past two months, kiwi’s headquarters have been creating a product that, they say, it can guarantee intoxication with only one drink thus lowering the cost for every alkie enthusiastic. Nonetheless, it’s in its testing phases and not ready for release. Therefore, it seems that the apple is still number 1 for the time being (Sell NZ). The apple might face some strong opposition around the 0.7959 and 0.8000 levels where there is about 78.6% of the population in trouble for drinking and trading.

    Until then, please don’t drink and trade, do one or the other but not both at the same time. It might just safe you from writing some crazy analysis.

  • Money Maker

    well staying above the previous low on the weekly and managing to get a break above previous high would confirm the bounce on longer time frames.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Malcom… You bring up an excellent point about the fact that EXITS are just as important as which direction and where we are getting in.

  • NathanTucci

    HI there! Thanks very much for the comment, Good to hear from a new trader! Sometimes the simple logic is the best way to approach something like this so I appreciate your straight forward suggestion.

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks!

  • NathanTucci

    Hello, thanks for the comment… I agree with the fundamental and technical approach you have brought up… You just wonder when the US will do something to reverse that!

  • NathanTucci

    Haha, well there is one way to handle it… Technicals are an interesting thing. Sometimes, indeed, they mean less than nothing.

  • NathanTucci

    Great comment, thank you for pointing out the Fib levels. I like your chart.

  • NathanTucci

    HI. Thanks for the comment. Much appreciated.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Greg, thanks for the comment, Great point about a possible hike down the road in interest rates. Will be interesting to see what happens between now and then.

  • NathanTucci

    Thank you for posting.

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for the comment.

  • NathanTucci

    Hello, thanks for your comment and detailed analysis.. Much appreciated. Interesting point about the dairy prices affecting NZD. Had not heard that mentioned before.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Ana, thanks for the comment.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Sunny, thanks! .. You are one of the few buyers we have today ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for the analysis… I like the chart, shows it very cleanly!

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for the comment… First one to do Elliot Wave analysis… Thanks!

  • Jeannie Anne Rivera Sioson

    Hello, I’m just a newbie and I’m still in the ‘staring in the charts’ mode. I would compare NZDUSD to a steep stairway down, and if ever I slip

  • Thor53

    Sure…..perhaps I didn’t word it well. It has been kind of range bound for the last couple of weeks, bouncing between .8050 and .8190. I just think that a 300 to 400 pip move down is likely to happen soon.

  • NathanTucci

    Some great analysis! Really appreciate it… “Unsustainable moves” sometime sustain a lot longer than we think they can, but you are right, it cannot go forever ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    HI Omar, thanks for the comment. I do like the simple approach… Appreciate it!

  • NathanTucci

    HI Peter, indeed, getting a better price on a sell would be ideal for those continuing to short.

  • NathanTucci

    HI Nani, thank you for your comment… do you think it will bounce all the way up or just partially?

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Paul, appreciate it… Full bounce or partial bounce?

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Sally, thanks for the comment. Appreciate the analysis and image… I am not familiar with a Picasso pattern. Could you tell me more about that?

  • NathanTucci

    Hi John, looking at the “snap back” approach? Makes sense, will be interesting to see if we get the rally up to ”normal” prices here.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Michael thanks for the comment. Splitting a position with a longer term target is not a bad idea.

  • NathanTucci

    HI Peter… I love what you said here. Because, as you mentioned, price being extended does not mean much. It could be extended now and also be extended next week and the week after and the week after–the market can do whatever it wants. Very important point to remember and I thank you for your comment

  • NathanTucci

    HI Kerry, thanks for the comment…Certainly hard to suggest that the bearishness here is not extremely powerful.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Vinci, thanks for the comment. Hard to argue with a bearish sentiment ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    This is the best analysis I have seen so far, thank you for the comment!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Alexey, thanks for the comment.. Really enjoyed reading it; I liked what you said about how not too long ago there was reason for a bounce, but now there isn’t Very good point. Will be interesting to see if this crazy market bounces anyway though haha… Thanks for the comment!

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for the image. Makes it easier to see your analysis..Good work!

  • NathanTucci

    HI there, thank you for the comment. Selling has been going on for a while on this pair.. I agree the current bar looks like a strong one that could push lower, but it is often the most convincing bars that are reversed upon. Thanks for the comment. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Ben, thanks for the comment. Appreciate the wise words about not just hoping for something… Can I ask what you see now if you assumed this was the week’s end?

  • NathanTucci

    Could be all it needs to go another 1,000 pips… We will see.

  • NathanTucci

    Sitting on your hands wasn’t one of the choices! ๐Ÿ˜€ … Just kidding, you made some good points here. Interesting that you noted a range, whereas most people look at the chart and all they see is massive momentum to one side. Thanks for the analysis.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Dev, for sure, the momentum is there to the downside. You just wonder if the Market is going to punish the bandwagon sellers at some point.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi, thanks for the comment… Indeed, that is simple. If you could execute it, that is a lot of pips and a lot of cash in your pocket!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi there, thanks for the analysis… Simple and to the point, but makes sense! I am a fan of the round number concept as well ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Gregor… Good, simple, sensible analysis! I think that some of the round numbers will come into play here if we get a bounce. But you wonder at what point will the market ignore the levels and simply squeeze out the sellers. We’ll see… Thanks for the analysis!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Anthony, indeed this thing has broker through almost every key level in site. It seems like nothing will stop it… Well, unless everyone shorts, then I am sure it will go up haha… but I like your analysis, Thanks!!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Mike, good analysis. Thanks so much for the comment… 8020 is an excellent price to get in on a Buy .. Well, if it goes up anyway ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Isaac, good thoughts! .. You eluded to one of my issues with shorting–seems like such a low price–waiting for the flag to get a better price makes a lot of sense, especially if the fundamentals still favor that strong USD that you mentioned. Good analysis, Thanks!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Roberto, all signs point to a strong USD at this time. I cannot argue with that!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Malcom. thanks.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Thor, thanks for the comment. Can you explain more what you mean? You said finally be making a significant move down, but isn’t that what it has already done? … Not trying to argue or anything, just want to be sure I understand you comment. Thanks!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Tarek, so far, it has not stopped… We’ll see if you are right and the beast keeps rolling ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Harry, thanks for the comment… Yeah, the bearish strength cannot be ignored. Will be interesting to see how many more levels it can crash through.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Andy, thanks for the comment. Lots of others agree with you that we could see some kind of bullish bounce simply due to the fact that NZDUSD has been down so much over the last few months… but how much of a bounce? Keeping an eye on the MA’s you mentioned is an interesting idea.

  • NathanTucci

    Hello and thanks for the comment… Good analysis on both ends. Long first and catching profit during a bounce may be a great idea. I am interested to see if we get that ‘over-extended’ type of bounce on the longer time frames or if this thing just keeps surging. Appreciate your thoughts.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Gabriel, thanks for the comment… And you are right. The simple analysis here may be to say short it until it convinces us that it isn’t going down anymore. Thanks for the feedback!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Papo, indeed the fundamentals are definitely screaming strength for the USD. Of course, the US could change that in a hurry by doing any number of stupid things :P… but for now, I agree ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Hi MK, thanks for the comment. Is there a chart image you could paste in to show us?

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Vaikay, thanks for the comment.. It is definitely in a down trend, but trends have to come to an end and sometimes they do suddenly. Is there anything else that makes you confident in continuation of the current trend?

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Tomas, thanks for the comment… 8221 is an interesting level. Why there?

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Morten, good point. You are right that a currency pair can have momentum but also be over-extended at the same time… Who knows how it reacts at that point? A Fib retrace is not a bad idea! Thanks for the comment

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Kelvin.. I appreciate the analysis even though you didn’t completely follow the rules ๐Ÿ˜›

    Thanks for the chart, looks good.

  • NathanTucci

    Hey Paul, thanks for the comment.. You made some good points and you are definitely right that we have not seen momentum quite like this headed through this zone recently. Should be interesting to see if and when the momentum is finally stopped… haha Chris has gotten a few votes from you guys now.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Ravi, thanks for the comment, and good analysis… Yeah, regardless of the close, it would be a good price compared to just a few weeks ago. I think that is one of the thing that makes it a very interesting consideration for buyers.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Charles, hard to disagree when all the momentum is clearly to the downside… But like always, you never know when the Market is going to reverse. Should be interesting to see how far the train goes.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi there, thanks for the comment… Yeah I would certainly say that the fundamentals are supporting more USD strength at this time. We’ll see if the US does anything to change that.

  • Bertie mcGarvey

    NZDUSD looks like a sell but the trend is too steep which may cause a pullback before further downside.I would be a little wary of it right now.

  • Benny Chow

    I believe there is a possiblity that a downside move will occurs as the pair having failed many times to break the upper weekly channel trend line. As the chart reveal, a bear flag has already formed. Its very likelihood that this key support will be breached. Fundamentally US dollar is strengthening which in turn will cause the pair to head further to the downside.

  • Osqui

    I donยดt give a sh… about technical. At this point, you just can guess because the price can do whatever it wants, so I would say go short small with a stop and reverse double. ๐Ÿ™‚

  • ComiCultural

    Sorry, I did not finished my comment, but have to leave now… I see that my pictures does not appear, although I have attached it… thit is it…

  • ComiCultural

    Nothing easier. Jokingly speaking. Forgetting about

    Daily-Weekly: The red trend line tells me โ€Stay awayโ€. I will look for a sign around 0.7900 – 0.7950 a very strong area in history – and FIBO 76.4, as seen in the first picture – maybe I will look for a long lower shadow, a hammer, something like that. Then BUY on a long term basis!! But pay atention, USD is bullish than never those months!…
    If we apply FIBO from March 2009 (the second picture), we find the 23.6 level in this area …

    H4-H1:

    If I am an impatient intraday trader … :

    1. The first BUY at 0.8050-0.8055, SL at 0.8020, TP at 0,8130.
    2. A second BUY at 0.8050-0.8055, SL at 0.8020, TP at 0.8380, BUT I would move higher the SL, step by step, because … yes, USD is bullish than never …

    This is it.

  • SY

    There is a weekly 200 sma at this level and it looks like it has a good chance of holding, don’t think we will get immediate rally but building a base here is highly likely. Hence, I will go with buying for a bounce.

  • Greg

    Hi all. My take on it is to wait for a bounce in the region of .7685, a big S/R area and 100% fib retracement level. The RBNZ has said they will possibly hike rates in Q1 of 2015. Should price come down this far a long could prove a nice trade. In the meantime one could look for pullbacks to eg fib levels at .8126 (61.8) and .8262 (50) for entering short. But I really like NINJATRADERMAN’s take on it too! Ha ha! My pet beetle just turned onto its back which is a sure sell sign! Good luck all.

  • VASILIS

    Positive RSI divergence warns of ebbing downside

    momentum and hints that a reversal higher may emerge around the corner. With that in mind, I will wait for a more compelling opportunity.

  • VASILIS

    Positive RSI divergence warns of ebbing downside

    momentum and hints that a reversal higher may emerge around the corner. With that in mind, I will wait for a more compelling opportunity.

  • docit

    Firstly, starting from fundamentals, the NZD has been weakening over the past few weeks due to a drop in dairy prices. Latest figures indicate a bounce with the NZ trade deficit considerably improved.

    From a technical perspective, the monthly chart shows the price constrained within an upwards channel, and the current price at the bottom of that channel. Other reasons to think we may see a bounce here are a significant fractal level at 0.805 and the 0.8 level which has also been tested several times in the past. I would expect the closing price to remain above 0.8 on the monthly chart (although it may spike down as far as 0.76).

    After the bounce, I believe that price will head up to around 0.84. The monthly pivot is at 0.84, a level which has been significant in the past. I would expect price to hesitate at this level, perhaps retracing to 0.82 or even 0.81. Hence I would look at 0.84 as the first target/profit take level.

    I think it likely that price will break through the 0.84 level eventually in the next 2-3 months and to eventually reach 0.88. This level has tested twice before (during the first half of this year and the middle of 2011). I think it likely that the level will hold (depending on what changes we see in the strength of the USD between now and then. Hence 0.88 would be my final target.

  • Ana

    Short. NzdUsd just crossed below 200SMA

  • sunny patel

    I believe at this point i would be taking a long position has it is forming a crown pattern. I would wait for bullish signal together with support gives a ok confluence and enter long.. Using the A, B, C, D pattern it will have completed B, retrace to C which could be 61.8% fib enter a sell podition now to then move lower past previous support to complete D.

    Thanks
    Sunny

  • Guest

    Currently price is resting at support and in confluence with the 200 ema which is strong dynamic support. Additionally, the RSI is showing an oversold condition which indicates that the push down could be reaching its exhaustion point. However, we are currently showing a lower low which is a clear continuation indicator. So we must wait to see where the candle closes. If it closes with a doji, then we go long at the next candle open. In order to go short, we must break and close below support and be very cautious with tight stops because a retracement is overdue.

  • Currently price is resting at support and in confluence with the 200 ema which is strong dynamic support. Additionally, the RSI is showing an oversold condition which indicates that the push down could be reaching its exhaustion point. However, we are currently showing a lower low which is a clear continuation indicator. So we must wait to see where the candle closes. If it closes with a doji, then we go long at the next candle open. In order to go short, we must break and close below support and be very cautious with tight stops because a retracement is overdue.

  • jacob

    Sell. The $ is strong.

  • KingofPips

    The king of pips order the market to move in Elliott wave pattern with a retracement of ABC pattern after the 5 wave up moves. See chart for the pattern.

  • malcom

    Technical and fundamental blends suggests that this is a short trade. When and where to enter and exit depend s on the trader

  • Guest

    daily

  • Guest

    weekly

  • Guest

    Pictures

  • Pablo Orellana

    Weekly> Long term uptrend It is right on a decision point, confluence of 3 lines: up trendline (pink line), big support level (pink horizontal line) and the 233 EMA. It is also at the bottom of the channel and has made an unsustainable move, but it has strong down momentum (white & red histograms), it can still move down. Next big support at 0.7650. Lets see the daily.

    Daily> It is in a downtrend forming wave 1. It is at the bottom of the channel showing an unsustainable move. It needs a healthy retrace back to the mean to start looking for selling opportunities. The daily is also showing bullish divergence. I would wait for the price to either break the weekly trend line or retrace to give a better entry price. Targets will be S4 at 0.7860, and the next is the weekly support at 0.7650.

  • Omar

    Keep it simple… Technically speaking: Sell ..I use the Ichimoku Cloud in my charts. It’s a downtrend.. Why?:

    a. The bar is below the weekly cloud
    b. Tenkan is below Kijun
    c. Chikou just pierced the Cloud also to the downside and
    d. The future cloud (looking ahead) is also moving downward

    So;
    1. You can sell at current level of .8073 or wait for a bounce back up to .8100 then sell ( or a combination)
    2. Stop level of: .8180
    3. Target: 1st Target: .8000; and move stop to entry level; 2nd Target: .7930

  • Peter

    the trend is down, therefore the safe approach is to sell. But this point is actually for shorts to cover as it is at a support. Thus, there should be a rebound coming soon. Wait for the rebound, and then sell at the turn of the rebound for the continual bearish move, unless the rebound actually breaks the trend line in which case one must look for long ops.

  • Nani

    I think it will bounce upwards because the resistance now becomes the support.

  • Paul Jewell

    I believe long is the proper play on this. Correction off large drop .
    Paul J.

  • Sally

    Hi Guys,

    I think that the Pair will rise. I have a few reasons why…

    Firstly, there is a very distinctive Picasso pattern forming on the chart.
    Secondly, the RSI(2) at these levels has preceded a bounce each time that it has occurred for the past 5 years.
    Thirdly, the energy index is exhausted.
    Finally, the PullbackLaser is green…which has also coincided with a rally each other time that it has turned green since 2010.

    Please see charts for my analysis!

    Take care,

    Sally x x

  • John

    NZDUSD weekly chart, 11wks down, far from 20ma, timid approach to 200ma and prior support. Look for buy signal on lower time frame and we have a red bar take out and bottoming tail on hourly chart at 20ma, therefore BUY :)!

  • michael

    Long Side: buy the Bounce at decision point level. 1st target half way to your potential profit target for buys. 2nd. target right a your potential profit zone for long buys. Stop 20 pips below entry position. Note very heavy resistance at decision point zone -would have to see how it opened to go long or short. The short side: if opening down I would short at decision point zone with 1st. target half way to potential profit zone for sells. 2nd. target at potential profit zone for sells. Stop loss 20 pips above short entry. Michael

  • Peter

    NZ is very weak at present so until I see genuine signs of strength I would go with the flow and sell any rallies. Price does look extended on daily charts but price can remain extended for longer than we expect at times. Currrently at prior monthly low so a bounce here is not unexpected. Next area for sell is around 0.8100 on hourly.

  • Kerry Rice

    Get ready for a breakthru & go short. Kerry Rice, 480-483-3254

  • Vinci

    I think that because the price has crossef back inside thetrend channel, the NZD/USD will go further down at least to the lower line if ny below therefore its a sell sell!

  • NINJATRADERMAN

    I have just looked out of my window and the flying elephant with the unicorn on its back surly point to a a buy signal, trust me am i Doctor.

  • alexey

    IMHO 8100 area is really critical level when NZD bounced bullish 2 times in Sep13 and Feb 2014. However, this is history only and as far as I remember NZD used to be strong mainly due to speculations/expectations of soon-to-come RBNZ interest rate hikes (first developed economy to hike rates!) + quite dovish and soft FED at that time with its neverending QE. Today situation is quite different, and price can behave differently. FED is exiting QE (USD bullish argument) and RBNZ is talking down it’s currency value (NZD bearish). Despite NZD has currently the highest rate and theoretically should be one of the strongest currencies right now – however, this is not the case and as usual in Forex, things are quite messy and complicated. At the moment , NZD is surrounded by very negative (bearish) sentiment (who knows why?) and strong USD – that what’s driving it down. In order to buy, we need at least some signs of reversal: patterns on H1 or better on H4, broken main trendline or whatever – but there is nothing like that. We have a strong bearish trend and just broke through 8100 level. Since we should be with-the-trend traders, and if we need to take decision now – let’s look to sell NZDUSD around 8100 after possible retest of broken level with stop above 8170 and target 8000 – psychological 0000 level where big money can put their profit targets/

  • Vaikay

    NZDUSD is a sell. Guppy Long & short term trend is down which is further confirmed by the price moving below 61.8 fib retracement .

  • majid ali

    yes it is a sell signal if black candle stay as a black until firday that a very goood sell signal i hope

  • ben

    Trade what you see is my maxim.Yes the nzdusd is certainly at a very strong support zone based on horizontal and weekly trendline support.As such I will be looking at candle structure on lower time frames do determine if I will buy or sell at the end of this week.What I SEE shall determine my action not what I think or hope may happen!!!

  • dev

    NZD/USD previous candle was indecision ,following candle just passed easily through blue zone heading straight down with strong momentum for sell target

  • julycotton

    Based on the fact that this chart is trading in a range, and the fact that it made a failed attempt to go higher I would say that there is a slightly higher probability of price going lower. That being said, price is currently at a support level which offsets what little edge there is to the downside. I would be sitting on my hands.

  • dev

    NZD/USD, previous candle was indecision ,candle after that was strong momentum passed thru blue zone very easily heading for sell zone target

  • Painter

    I would wait for a reversal pattern to take price back to potential buy trade target. Then I would wait for a candle pattern confirmation to sell and take the trade to the south sell trade target. Pretty straight forward stuff.

  • wingnut

    wait for a pull back to the 8100 area then go short … first target is 8000

  • Gregor

    Hi Nathan, great idea. – As we are in a major support area, I’m now looking at the daily charts in order to see if a bounce forms in order to go long. Targets at prior support / resistance areas 82.40 and 84.00. If we break below the current support, I’ll wait for a bounce back up, ideally to the current support area, which would then have become resistance, in order to go short. These are just some ideas, but in the end it will all depend on what the market offers me. And that might be completely different. Wish you all “good trading”!

  • anthonyfroster

    I would sell the NZD/USD as it has broken key levels on the Monthly and Weekly charts (granted they have not yet closed) and the MACD on both charts are still in a selling mode. I am looking at 0.7717.

  • Mike

    I would be willing to start a long position in the .8020 area, to see if the .7950 area will hold for a reversal, target 1 would be .8120. Alternately I would look for a rally to .8300-.8400 which I would short with first target area of .8000, looking to take it down to .7800 eventually. I expect lows below .8050 before any corrective rally gets going.

  • isaac

    the pair NZDUSD is on a psychological support and bearish i.e below the 100 and 200 moving averages. a close below 0.8055 on the daily would attract sellers. I would anticipate a break and then wait for a correction upwards for a hook creating a bear-flag. Fundamentals favour the USD at the moment

  • Roberto Quezada

    USD will keep its way up, so I would sell this pair. Itยดs not a good time for a reversal, I guess.

  • malcom

    Sell short.

  • Thor53

    I’ve been waiting for a breakdown in this pair for a couple of weeks. It has certainly been stubborn, but I think we might finally be on the precipice of a significant move down, at least to the .7700-.7750 area.

  • disqusjbentz

    ok, got that wrong. ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • tarek123

    If the candle close below the lowest low of the support area, we are sellers and expect the sellers’ target. And I believe that it will do so

  • Harry

    The prevailing trend is down with strong bearish bar. If it breaks support I like the sell with tight trailing stop, because we might be in for a bounce (false breakout). However, I do expect the bounce at high volume node in 0,78800 area.

    Confirmation for immediate reversal / correction would give f.e. a candlestick reversal bar, setting up a counter trend trade to upper resistance level, where prevailing down trend could resume.

  • Andy

    NZDUSD is oversold and is sitting on a support zone, also has been falling for six straight weeks so could be a good place for a bounce to the daily/weekly 21 or 50 moving averages which would be a good place to reassess the chart

  • Money Maker

    LONG with tight stop below 0.8027 for the rest of this week or on a break of 0.8082.

    If we stay above 0.8027, SELL the break below next week.

    stay short (intraday) until we break 0.8140 .

    If we don’t break above 0.8147 go short again.

    finally change the overall bearish view to bullish on a close above 0.8205

    Long TP 0.8250 (0.8400 if we break 0.8260)

    Short TP 0.7960 (and 0.7815 if we break 0.7960)

  • disqusjbentz

    long

  • GABRIEL

    ITS LOOKS LIKE YOU ARE ALMOST TO YOUR PIVOT POINT. I AM NO EXPERT BUT FROM WHAT I HAVE READ AND STUDIED, THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND, UNTIL-WELL IT TURNS THE OTHER DIRECTION….LOL. LOOKING AT CHRIS’S CHART BELOW IT SEEMS ITS ABOUT TO TREND UP, SO SHORT FOR NOW FOR SMALL PROFIT AND BUY WHEN THE PIVOT OR UP TREND BEGINS. I HAVEN’T HAD ANY FOREX FORMAL TRAINING, BEEN LOSING MONEY DOING BINARY OPTIONS. ๐Ÿ™ I DO KNOW THAT FOREX IS A GOOD WAY TO MAKE SOME INCOME AND I AM SAVING UP TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A DECENT STARTING BALANCE AND TO GET SOME EXPERT TRAINING. THANK YOU,
    GABRIEL

  • Papo Invest

    SELL! it is due to the fundamentally strong USD in the moment.

  • MK

    NZD/USD shows a strong sell due to the following reasons —
    1. Just croseed the 200 SMA
    2. Ichimoku cloud turns bearish
    3. The target should be in the range of 0.7863 due to Fib extension aligning with lowest high of V armpit concept.

  • Tomas

    Picture Long

  • Tomas

    Also put picture.

  • Vaikay

    NZDUSD is a sell. Long & short term trend is down which is further confirmed by the price moving below 61.8 fib retracement .

  • Tomas

    My opinion about NZD/USD Long. If price didn’t hit ~0,8017 then I think that first Long target will be ~0,82218 blue level zone.

  • Morten k

    I think its bearish but also its oversold and there will be some retracement to fibonacci 50 level

  • Kelvin Samuel

    NZDUSD is not tradeable now, not good to buy and not good to sell, we should be looking to buy if it crosses above the 4 hours resistance and be looking to sell if it breaks below the support zone, but it will be a whole different analysis.

    In summary:
    I am watching to see what price does and will take action based on that.

  • Paul

    I would have drawn the major support & resistance (decision, potential targets) at about the same levels
    Based on most recent history of support holding this level, my bias would be to the long side at the point in time of the screen shot. However, looking a little more closely, I perceive the momentum of this last down move to the decision level to be considerably stronger (steeper) and therefore have a greater chance of breaking down through the level and continuing down to the next level (potential target) than the previous two occasions that price was at this level
    So my bet is SHORT, providing price action (such as a nicely formed lower timeframe candle stick or pattern of candle sticks) presents a sufficiently tight (small) area above which to ‘hide’ my stop with a realistic expectation of at least a 2 times the risk in reward
    I want Chris to win the competition though, so we can accuse him of ‘insider trading’!
    cheers

  • Ravi

    This is a weekly chart and the current candle is strongly bearish. I am not ready to take a trade until the candle has closed in 3 days time. I will be looking at how the candle ends up being. If there is a shadow at the bottom, then I will be checking on the daily and H4 candles to see if the support level is holding and take a trade late on day 1 of next week.
    If you want my opinion, then I am expecting a reversal similar to the one that occurred in early Feb. Buyers would still consider this a good price to buy and so I think we are headed up.

  • Charles Bond

    What I see is a market plummeting like a steam train , the last bar is still a very strong bearish bar , I think its going to slice through this support like a razor blade through a banana ! maybe a retracement after one or 2 more bars then right on down towards the next support level !

  • alum1989

    Based on the global climate and some of the chart indicators, I predict a small bounce up off resistance and then a further erosion in the price and another step down.

  • Anselmo

    Dejarlo bajar hasta los 77740 y despuรฉs comprar

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for the analysis, Tim.

  • Tim

    I believe we are at key level, with price taking out the low at .8o45 and then turning bullish to form the right tip at .8490 and turning bearish again with a target at .75755

  • Phoebe Ejimbe

    Subject: Re: New comment posted on NZDUSD Decision Point (Comment Contest)

  • NathanTucci

    Thanks for your analysis. It is much appreciated.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Jari… Indeed, definitely a bearish trend. But who ever said trends have to keep going? ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Going for max profit… I like it

  • NathanTucci

    Chris… I like your analysis; however, I am not picking you as the winner ๐Ÿ˜›

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Phoebe.. Nice analysis! /// Someone has been spending lots of time around Mr Svorcik ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Thanks so much for your participation!

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Julian, looks like the image posted after a bit ๐Ÿ™‚ /// Thanks for the analysis!! Yes, definitely keeping my fingers crossed for Chris ๐Ÿ˜€

  • jari

    based on the fundamentals, the US is the stronger currency and the NZD is weak. A bounce is possible back to around 0.81230 (61.8%) retracement of the last major swing up. Than a move back down to around the 0.76830 level. The trend is still bearish.

  • Julian

    I hope that Chris wins the contest, so he can have some months of trading room for free haha.

    To me it will do something like this. Since we have 50% chance I will guess ๐Ÿ™‚

    PS. the image doesn’t want to paste, so just saying is a buy.

  • Julian

    I hope that Chris wins the contest, so he can have some months of trading room for free haha.

    To me it will do something like this. Since we have 50% chance I will guess ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Phoebe Ejimbe

    NZDUSD moved down with a strong momentum to a strong Support level. The pair show a history of consolidation at that level and it is likely to do so again. Then the pair will most likely pull back to between Fib levels 38.2% to 61.8% before moving down to hit the sell target which is likely to be at the fib level -272% or -161.8%.

  • Chris

    Hey Nathan! Awesome contest idea!

    I think that the downside target will get hit before the upside target.

    My expectation on the NZDUSD is this:
    Price will first continue down, but it misses the downside target by just a bit, retraces back up to miss the upside target by a bit and then crashes to the downside target. See purple arrows in screenshot. ๐Ÿ˜‰

    The upside bounce is based on the armit concept ๐Ÿ™‚

  • Prp90

    Buy. When it hits TP wait for it to drop a bit then sell with the new TP at the current decision point, then wait to see if it drops further and sell again with TP at 0.77030.

  • Derek

    NZDUSD is a definite SELLLLLLL… BUYERS BEWARE……. alread broke criticle trndline and is below all key fibo levels… SELL SELL SELL SELL

  • NathanTucci

    Comments go Right Here ๐Ÿ™‚