Thursday’s EURUSD & XAUUSD Trading Plan

Hello there traders,

On this Valentine’s day we will be focusing on the EURUSD development. We have been monitoring the EURUSD intensively throughout the entire week so today’s forex advice and forex educational article will be focused on that. We hope these insights help you as a trader. 🙂

However, we will also take a quick look at XAUUSD and see what kind of commodity trading advice we can provide on Gold.

EURUSD

The EURUSD made an interesting and expected turn around to the upside on Monday and Tuesday, but the lacked much of that conviction in yesterday’s trading.

The EURUSD did make a continued move up but rallied into solid resistance at the 500 Fibonacci retracement level of the entire move down, thereby creating a Doji on the day chart.

FEB 14  EURUSD day

As yesterday was an indecision day, the immediate fate of the EURUSD seems a bit more unclear at this moment. If we zoom into the lower time frame of a 4 hour chart, we can see the sizeable wick on the top of the candle followed by bearish downside pressure.

At the end of the trading session a smaller bottom was created at 1.3425. This is yesterday’s low  could be an important intra-day level for both bears and bulls.

–          If this support breaks, the bears might wrestle back control and the EURUSD could fall deeper to retest the bigger bottom and trend line at 1.3350-60 area

–          If this support holds, the bulls will push up the currency to retest the top at 1.3520

Any break of the bigger bottom of 1.3350-60 and we might see a continued move down, although there could be another layer of support around the 1.3270 area (618 Fib of 3 wave up).

Any break of the bigger top of 1.3520 and we might see a continued move up. The next resistance areas are 1.3580 and 1.370.

FEB 14  EURUSD 4 HR

As mentioned earlier in this blog, XAUUSD continued its fall as expected. The golden commodity made an impulsive fall this week and if one would apply Elliott Wave Theory analysis to the charts, then I would expect that there is a good statistical probability that XAUUSD can continue to lower price levels.

The day chart shows us that this could be a wave 5. These are the potential targets:

1)      A wave 5 might go all the way down to the -0.618 and -0.272 targets at 1,580-1,600

2)      The wave 5 could extend even further to the -1.000 and -0.618 targets, which would bring XAUUSD down to 1,540-1.560 levels

FEB 14  XAUUSD day

Let us now zoom into the 4 hour chart to see if we can identify any clear cut trading tips.

The 4 hour chart shows us that we have completed a wave 1 and wave 2 and we are now in the wave 3 (of the wave 5 on the day chart). But the wave 3 does not seem completed. Within wave 3 we can identify a wave 1-2-3 and we are now in wave 4 most likely.

FEB 14  XAUUSD 4hr

A wave 4 of a wave 3 may never go into the price territory of wave 1 so that means the price of XAUUSD should not go above the 1.665-1.667 area before breaking the bottom at 1,639.

Do you trade XAUUSD or EURUSD? What would what you want to see analyzed next week?

Good Trading!

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  • lepi

    you are good

  • lepi

    both

  • Paul Let us know how the trades work out for you.

  • Chase,

    Don’t let it get you down, it happens to all of us. Just make sure you get the nextone and dont give up!

  • Man I’m so bleak. I also spotted this one a couple weeks back. Went short, got a little out of it, then stopped out at breakeven. Gave up on it right before the massive slide.

  • Paul

    Very grateful, as always, for your shared daily analysis

    I like the USD CAD short opportunity and also GBP USD counter trend long (based on yesterdays candle shape & level (I have a monthly ascending trend-line supporting price at these levels for cable)

    I have placed orders on both pairs about half way back into these daily bars (with stops just past their extremes), so lets see what happens over the next few days!

    Thanks again Nathan

  • Harold

    Thanks for the Daily Analysis. Excellent job of giving an overview of the Market.