With the start of the new month, Forex traders have the luxury of analyzing new monthly candle sticks and patterns.
The previous month of January is providing a wide range of valuable information. This post reviews those interesting opportunities and conclusions on the majors.
The EURUSD monthly candle of January was not only heavily bearish, but it was also a massive candle: more than 1,000 pip from high to low. This has been by far the largest bearish candle since the downtrend started in May 2014.
The wick at the bottom candle represents +/- 185 pips which is 18.5% of entire candle. For the bears it was certainly a decently strong close but not as sturdy as July ’14, August ’14, and December ’14 candle sticks.
When analyzing the weekly chart, the EURUSD is showing a bullish candle for the first time in 7 weeks. It is called a Harami candle stick and the pattern indicates a potential bullish reversal. This could set the tone for a bullish EURUSD this upcoming week.
When I place a Fibonacci tool on the Harami weekly candle then the -27.2 and -61.8 Fibonacci levels (green Fib) are the key targets for the following reasons:
- The previous consolidation zone (purple circle) could act as a resistance zone;
- A zigzag correction would be completed (green arrows);
- The bigger trend remains down (orange arrow);
- The January candle is bearish and when price reaches the Fibonacci targets (orange Fib), it will have retraced back to the 38.2 and 50% Fib levels of the monthly candle.
The path of the highest probability for the EURUSD therefore seems to be a bullish zigzag followed by downtrend continuation. This analysis is highly dependent on the NFP figures which will be released on Friday later this week. The other majors are showing a different situation.
The GBPUSD bearishness seems substantially less interesting to me due to various reasons:
- It has a GBP interest rate announcement on Thursday;
- Monthly support is close by;
- January’s candle was bearish but less impulsive than the EURUSD;
- The weekly candle closed bullish as well;
- The GBP has been showing strength against other currencies.
The USDJPY bullishness was certainly not visible on the USDJPY during January. Its candle closed bearish and indicates a decent to high chance of further consolidation. I am expecting the triangle to continue before any bullish (or bearish break) occurs.
Contrary to the EURUSD and GBPUSD, the AUDUSD not only has a very big bearish January candle but also has a bearish weekly candle last week. There was no crucial bounce for the AUDUSD and hence I am expecting more bearish trend. Of course this will depend on the Australian interest rate announcement on Tuesday, which could have a volatile impact. Technically speaking I am looking for more downside continuation upon the retracement of the monthly candle (orange Fib). The best turning spot is the 50% due to the resistance on the left.
What do you think of the majors?
Wish you Happy Hunting!
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