Trade77; COT Report of The Week 5th Dec.


Hello Traders, I’m Mani and I’m the writer of Trade 77 section, please follow me on twitter for further updates.
COT Reports are weekly articles and if you have any questions about numbers and indexes in this section please have a review on the past articles about sentiment and COT reports in the guest post.

EURO ——> Bearish
Last week COT report showed that speculators finally went net short and we were waiting for commercials to go net long and this week it can be seen that commercials are now net long and this shows that Euro is still vulnerable and bears have got more power than bulls.

COT Indexes also plunged from 78.4, 68, 33.3 to 76.4, 60, 25 for COT52, COT26 and COT13 respectively. This shows that bears are still alive.

EURUSD had a correction last week and increased to near 1.3400 level, I’m still bearish in this pair and I’m going to have a short setup for this week. You can follow me on twitter to receive fast updates for this pair.

USD Index ——> Bullish

Speculators and commercials difference had a correction last week, 68.82% of speculators were long and now this number has decreased to 68.18% but indicates that traders are still net long and their sentiment tends to powerful USD.
Also COT indexes remained unchanged this week and there is not any new information from this analysis.

Kiwi ——> Bearish

Last week I said that Kiwi contracts is showing a great opportunity to go short and they are highly indicating that a bearish trend is about to start but for this instance I won’t short the pair just after COT analysis and we have to wait for some good technical short positions. Exactly last week I called a long on NZDUSD just when it reached the daily trendline and now it’s near 270 pips above the trendline. You can see my last analysis on this pair here.
I think after that correction on this pair now we are going to wait for a short signal on a better point and I’m still waiting for a good short setup and will write an article about it soon.
So make sure that you are not going to lose this one!

Loonie ——> Near Reversal but Still Bullish

Loonie is still bullish however speculator and commercial contracts remained unchanged and this shows that sentiment is neutral for Canadian dollar.
Also COT indexes are falling slightly and I’m waiting for them to reach “0” so at that point we could say that sentiment is going to be changed from bullish CAD to Bearish one.

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Regards

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  • Anonymous

    Hi Gilly,
    Thanks and glad you found it useful.

  • Anonymous

    Thank you Gilly.
    From here you can read all my Sentiment and COT articles: http://winnersedgetrading.com/category/guest-posts/
    I wrote completely about it there. But for your answers; 1)COT 13 and 26 is for shorter terms and 52 is for longer term analysis.
    2) Commercials are absolutely counter trend most of the time and you can read why this is possible in my articles.

    Please read these article series :”What is Sentiment in The Forex Market”,”The Myth of Economic Indicators”,”Add This New Indicator, Magazine Covers”,”COT Reports, Part 1,2,3″
    And I’m preparing a pdf file for COT reports, if you are following me on twitter then you will be informed of this.

    Thanks again

  • Stein

    Hi Mani,

    Disregard my previous queries, 1-2 hrs ago. I did a study on your articles COT # 1-3. Very good and valuable info. Thanks a lot for good insight and analysis.
    Gilly

  • Stein G.

    Hi Mani. Really appreciate your articles and analysis. Could you please tell me :
    1) What are the different COT indexes (26, 13, etc) telling us exactly?
    2) I thought the changes in Commercials ( the Big dogs) made the move on the futures and currencies, Say if the Comm decreased their short positions, I should be loooking for some potential bullishnes in the currency (pair). You comments on the Euro, where Comm become more buyers and you say that the bears have more power than the bulls ?
    Gilly