Good trends are hitting the Forex market and creating interesting conditions for Forex traders. For instance, the US Dollar strength is rocking the market strongly. The times when the EURUSD was knocking on the doorsteps of the 1.40 level seem ages ago and price in the meantime has hit the 1.25 level.
There is another trend that should not go unnoticed: the Australian Dollar weakness during the month of September. This time around we are reviewing the GBPAUD as the AUDUSD has already been analyzed in an earlier post of this week (click here).
The Great British Pound in fact is probably the 2nd strongest in the market as of late. It is losing the least ground versus the USD, beating the EUR and NZD, roughly even against the JPY and dominating the AUD (Australian Dollar).
WEEKLY ENGLUFING TWINS
The bounce off of the 38.2 weekly Fibonacci retracement level can simply be described as massive. That momentum is still dominating the GBPAUD as each subsequent weekly candle posted higher highs and higher lows. Weekly engulfing twins at a confluence of Fibonacci levels (38.2 retracement and -27.2 target) can be very powerful!
The good news is that last week’s high has again been broken. With intra-week resistance out of the way, there could be awesome trade potential for intra-week and intra-day traders. Let’s zoom in!
The 4 hour uptrend is confirming the bullish weekly candles – although if you look closer at recent price action, it becomes noticeable that the current trend angle is significantly shallower (red lines) compared to the beginning (green lines). Also, price does not break as far above resistance (purple circles on top of candles) as it did at the beginning of the uptrend.
Conclusion: price is in an uptrend but showing signs of slowdown.
Warning: this is where reversal traders often lose out a lot as they start to anticipate trend reversal way too soon. They strike out a dozen times and then do not take the actual reversal because of the previous failed attempts.
Solution: the trend is still UP. Focus on long trades unless very strong and clear momentum is present.
The break of the falling wedge chart pattern (purple lines) just at/above support (green line) was a great trade setup. Now it could be a good moment to wait for the pullback and continuation.
I will place a Fibonacci retracement key (orange) on the current swing high and swing low, which could have to be moved to the new top if price continues with its higher highs and higher lows. Any of the Fibonacci levels could be a good entry.
The very best reward to risk ratio is at the 88.6 Fibonacci level, but there is not a high chance price could retrace that deep. The 88.6 Fib is also the armpit level (blue line), which provides extra confluence.
But basically any of these Fib levels could be the bouncing spot for trend continuation. The best is to wait for candle stick chart patterns as a confirmation that price is bouncing at one of the Fib levels.
Stop loss should be below the swing low. Take profit at the -27.2 Fibonacci target and/or trailing stop loss of 1 hour bottoms.
Are you keeping an eye on this pair? What specific tools would you add to the analysis?
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