United States Jobless Claims at Four-Year Low

Thursday, October 11th, U.S. jobless claims are the lowest since February 2008.

Economists expected claims to rise to 370,000 so, the decline to 339,000 was quite a surprise.

According to Fox Business “A sharp drop in the number of weekly jobless claims filed last week was caused by the failure of one large state to report all of its claims, a Labor Department spokesman confirmed to FOX Business.”
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The jobless claims could just be an outlier since there doesn’t seem to be any specific positive reasons for this decline.

If it is true that a large state failed in reporting all of the numbers, we can expect a revision of these numbers next week.

Last week, the unemployment rate shocked America. It declined to 7.8%, the lowest since January 2009.

If all these statistics are accurate, some would conclude the U.S. economy is gaining ground. I don’t think 2 weeks of surprises is enough to draw that conclusion.

Jobless claims can be volatile but if we see numbers like 339k for the next couple weeks, it would appear that the U.S. could be gaining ground.

The recent positive dollar news could give the Obama campaign ammunition to use against Romney in the soon-coming election.

The Vice Presidential Debate is tonight at 7pm EST. It will be interesting to see if VP Biden uses the jobless claim numbers as a weapon against Ryan and Romney’s campaign.

I am currently neutral on the Dollar, we are seeing some great economic numbers but uncertainty is still at every turn. From the upcoming U.S. elections, to quantitative easing, and fiscal concerns, the near future of the Dollar is kind of a blur.

Leave your comments below.

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  • Great questions, Nathan.

    I think one factor is, with all of the recent U.S. news and events, people are, in a sense, dazed and confused.

    Elections are around the corner, QE3 was announced less than a month ago. The Fed
    could add to QE3, plus there is uncertainty with the Fed since Mitt Romney wants Bernanke out. Jobless claims were the lowest since February of 2008 but, there are reports of the numbers not being accurate. The unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the lowest we’ve seen since Jan. 2009 but, with elections coming up, some can’t help but think that numbers could be skewed.

    I think investors are in a shocked state of uncertainty. As we move into 2013, I expect the dust to settle and some clarity to be brought to the true economic condition of the United States.

  • NathanTucci

    Tony, lots of good info… One thing I am wondering is this: The numbers that came out for the US were SOO good that it seems like the USD should be crushing the other currencies.. I feel that if these numbers were truly accurate, that the USD would be moving much more… Do you agree? And if so, do you think that leads to the idea that many people are not totally buying into these reports?