USD/CHF: Technical Analysis May 4th 2010

By Yankee Clipper

Oh what to do with a long weekend when trading is either slow or nonexistent.
I know! Study the movement of pairs… and so today’s offering is USD/CHF
After a slow start on Monday due to the holiday here in the UK I combined the
CONSENSUS OVERVIEW for the USD/CHF
1 Month                          3Month                12 Month
Potential                        Potential              Potential
+1.5%                             +2.54%                 +5.03%
The Overall Consensus of the 5 major bank rates estimates
1 Month 3 Month 12 Month
1.0744 up to 1.1021      1.0867 up to 1.1134           1.1149 up to 1.1404
and my calculations and I’m seeing
  • For the Investment Trader a Long Term Signal: Probability : Buy 63.94%…. Sell 36.06% and
  • For the Day Trader a Short Term Signal: Probability : Buy 56.17%…. Sell 43.83%
So, IMHO, there is an opportunity for the Investment Trader in this pair going into the first week’s trading of May and onward.
As always, scalpers can watch the pair and plan their entry/exit strategies as and when.

Position Flat
Price 1.0795
Target
Stop
Strategy Buy at 1.0690

Times, as always unless otherwise stated, are in EST.
For the pair USD/CHF
The most active days are Thurs (23% TM) and Fri (22% TM)
80% of trends occur between 01:00 and 13:00.
61% TM begins between 05:00 and 13:00

.

A scalpers Disclaimer

A profitable strategy is useless without discipline
Many traders end up losing money because they fail to make trades that meet their own criteria.
“Plan the trade and trade the plan” …. Success is impossible without discipline.

— May all your PIPS be profitable

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