Analysis October 9th

Mostly follow-through in today’s market.

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  • craig

    Be happy too. May take me a while, but I will try to do that.

  • Grey

    Gbp usd on possible 50% retrace thanks for the great analysis and keep it coming

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Ben, yes I do agree with you that a hard bounce from the 1.3000 level would be a very good sell… My only hesitation is that I don’t want to miss the full reversal. If it continues to head down now, it may not test that area for a long, long time; so it would be a shame to miss it. With that said, it is important to stick to your plan and not make adjustments out of fear or any other emotion.

  • NathanTucci

    Hi Craig, thanks for sharing your analysis on the EUR/AUD. Great trade, too! … You were more aggressive than me with this pair and it is already paying off for you so that is awesome! It is always nice to be in a free trade, too. Yeah, that is cool that you are able to use some indicators but still rely heavily on price action… If you want to share your full trading plan we’d love to learn about it. We could even post it on the site if is detailed enough 🙂

  • NathanTucci

    Geoff, I think that is a valid possibility… The weakness in the Euro right now is very evident across the board, so it is seeming more and more unlikely that this move is only a fake to get people jumping on board in the wrong direction. We’ll see how much continuation of the reversal momentum we get over the next week.

  • Geoff

    With the EURAUD the fact that it reversed down before making it to the trendline or resistence could this be an even clearer sign of weakness and therefore a very good short?

  • craig

    Sorry, made a typo there. Should have said retest of the 1.2820 level.

  • craig

    Hi Nathan. On the euraud, I decided to take a trade based on Monday’s price action after it formed a dark cloud cover. Price was testing, as I see, a nice supply(resistance) level right around the 1.2120 level. On the weekly chart back on 5/13 and 5/20, price action formed a nice bearish signal and supply zone ,and price moved away quickly. Price has come back to test this level again for the 1st time accompanied by inverted bearish divergence (macd or AO). I sold on break of Monday’s low and set my stop just past the 50% level of Monday’s bar. I am fortunate to now be if a free trade based off of today’s price action. Like You, I am not a big fan of indicators, but I do occasionally use macd or AO for divergence when placing ct trades. I personally use horizontal price zones more so than trend lines, unless it is a specific formation such as a wedge or ascending triangle….etc, because trend lines are created from horizontal zones and retest’s of these zones when price moves up and down. Well, that is my 2 cents worth on this trade! If it goes against me, I’m ok, but hopefully can make some profit.
    Have a great evening,

  • Merle

    Thanks you make a difference

  • ben

    Thanks Nathan, very useful as usual.Yes on the eur/aud trade I am also waiting for the push higher to the 1.3000 level and then it should be a good sell and at the same time i may take a buy until then if it bounces off the 1.2550 support on the 4hr chart.which is also close to the 61.8 fib retrace of the last swing high on the 4hr chart.Should know later today.All the best.

  • Ahmed Rashwan

    thanks Nathan for the analysis
    take car about GBP/USD as it stands on the 38.2 fib level