A brand new trading year has finally arrived. Ironically the fact the 2015 trading year has started means that it’s time to review the key levels of 2014, such as the high, low, close and open of the year 2014.
Why reviewing the last year provides very valuable information has already been discussed in a recent blog post. Please read the details here to understand the analysis which will be offered in this particular post.
EURUSD in 2015
In a previous post the EURUSD has already been intensively reviewed and the conclusion was that the probability of USD bullishness against the EUR was very high (read here). Open of 2014 was 1.3756 and the high was 1.3993. The low was 1.2097 and the close was only 2 pips above the low at 1.2099. Let’s review what the candle stick patterns are communicating to us.
That means the wick at the bottom was only 2 pips out of +/- 1800 pip candle, which is 0.11% of the candle. Obviously,6 a candle close which is that extremely close to the low (and has a decent sized candle) tells it all: loads of bearishness. And indeed January has so far dropped 220 pips.
I am expecting EURUSD to drop much further such as 1.15, then 1.13 and then 1.10. Eventually even parity could be in sight.
GBPUSD in 2015
The GBPUSD’s story is in most aspects the same as the EURUSD: bearishness. There is a slight difference that the GBPUSD raised in price level quite strongly at the start of 2014 but the crash against the US Dollar has been equally impressive. Here are the details:
Open of 2014 was 1.6565 and the high was 1.7191. The low was 1.5485 and the close was at 1.5580.
The candle was a 985 pip bearish candle and was 1706 pips from high to low. It had a 626 pip wick on top (37%) and a 95 pip on the bottom (3.8%).
So far January has already seen the GBPUSD drop by over 400 (!) pips. The USD is expected to continue in 2015 and price retesting the lows of 2013 at +/-1.4825 seems likely. Whether price can in fact break through support remains to be seen but if it does, then price could fall into the low 1.40’s before hitting new monthly support levels.
USDJPY in 2015
The USDJPY’s price movements also copy the EU and GU: USD bullishness leads the way and is a very dominant factor. The USDJPY consolidated in very narrow range for months on end before finally breaking out to the upside. Here are the details:
Open of 2014 was 105.26 and the low was 100.77. The low was 121.84 and the close was at 119.83.
The candle was a 1457 pip bullish candle and was 2107 pips from high to low. It had a 201 pip wick on top (9.5%) and a 449 pip on the bottom (21.3%).
There are two interesting differences between EU and GU in comparison with the UJ.
- The USDJPY wick on top of the candle is 9.5% which is substantial higher percentage than the EU with 0.1% and the GU with 3.8%;
- The USDJPY has so far during the opening trading days of January 2015 not broken the USD high point as yet. Both the EU and GU have broken the low and fallen hundreds of pips.
Although the USDJPY certainly had a very bullish 2014, the sell off at the end of December was certainly bigger than on the EU and GU, which created a noticeable wick on top of the monthly candle. Although bullishness is still the dominant trend and the monthly candle is certainly not a pinbar or a reversal signal, the USD trend could be slower and take longer to develop against the JPY.
Tomorrow we will look into some other non-USD candles from 2014 and judge whether there are interesting setups or trends present in these pairs.
Do you have a particular preference for a currency pair?
What are your targets for the USD trend?
Let us know down below! Happy Hunting!
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