AUD/USD 8 Hour Wedge Ready to Break

UPDATE: The AUD/USD trade is developing. I’m planning my long trade for the end of the day!



The consolidation in the AUD/USD is coming to a point–literally.

With all of the downward trend behind it, many people are bias to the short side (and how could you blame them?!), but what about the reversal potential here?

I am quite ready for either side here. I don’t mind taking a somewhat counter-trend trade if there is a massive Risk/Reward in play and I certainly don’t mind jumping on the biggest trend of the year at a better price.

What do you think?

Which way do you anticipate the next 500+ pip move and are you willing to trade on either side here?


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  • Will McCoy

    Tankage. Bears win this round. 7/24 session closed @ .91604

  • Benny1

    I see a top around 0.9310 – 09320 retest the lower triangle boundary, and then break 0.9320

  • Simon ingram gillson

    I see the break to the upside then runs into the 9290 which has already had 3 hits that have failed so would have to break the trend line and the resistance line

  • Maharshi

    i will trade whichever direction mr market takes it

  • Nearchos

    Hi Nathan,

    I’m not a professional on the subject but a I trade for years now. I’ll wait price reaction on the 4H chart and decide accordingly. I see un upward possibility up to 0.94 and with much difficulty (it will take time) up to 0.96 not more (38.2 Fibo on the weekly chart

  • Gordon

    I’m looking at a Bullish Butterfly on the weekly, as well as an abandoned baby, with conformation as well as price heading up to meet a flat Kejin sen, with the stoch in oversold curling up. Looks like it’s going to range for a bit hahaha.

  • FxSniper1

    I decided, afterall to short based on h1 realities.

  • FxSniper1

    The technical realities on this pair are opening up and I am leaning towards a short if current h4 closes a shooting star off the wedge resistance. my stop would then be just above said bar.

  • Susie P

    It is fascinating to me to read people’s comments and find out that each one sees things in a different way. for me it looks like there might be some kind of advanced harmonic pattern forming. the most important thing is waiting until the new trend does start and jumping in on that whichever way that might go.

  • FxSniper1

    It is also possible that 0.9300 confluencing with the wedge resistance could provide a firm rejection. In that case, I am looking to see how the Day closes around that value to help in my decision.

  • FxSniper1

    In terms of pure price action, there is little to suggest that there is anything worth risking a dime on this pair at this time. I like to see what happens with the h4 range high of between 0.9343/0.9373. I like to see a very clear Daily or intraday rejection of this value before considering rejoining the trend or a clear Day close above before looking for a bullish extension. No doubt, 0.90000 has provided a good support layer and if I was not long off that value, I won’t be long at this time. It is way too risky to regard current price action as anything tradeable. Just my two cents!

  • Doug

    Looks like a move back down to .9205 to the bottom of triangle

  • Dan

    looking to short at .9347

  • ben

    My bet is to the upside as I also subscribe to a Committment of Traders report and the the Big Dogs {banks} have been heavily net long for weeks now.They often buy into a down rally for some time before the turn!! and so it is hard to pin point the correct time.Good analysis as Nathan provides helps here.

  • NathanTucci

    I feel you on that, Tom.. But what if it does in fact break to the North with power? Then do you take the long or sit out?

  • NathanTucci

    Ah, inspiring I am? Nice!! ๐Ÿ™‚ Let me know what you decide, Kiran!

  • tom g

    it looks to me as if we are in a area that has acted as resistance for about 20 or so days,I would be lookind for a short opportunity

  • Kiran

    After watching Chris’ EW vids, I’m thinking this is a wave 4 on the daily. So I’d be bearish, to atleast 0.880. You may even have inspired me to take a multi-day trade Nathan!

  • NathanTucci

    haha, looking forward to it, Eric! ๐Ÿ™‚

  • NathanTucci

    Interesting analysis with the EMA cross.. I don’t typically use indicators as triggers, especially if I think important levels are in the way, but I certainly recognize the momentum to the upside is currently evident

  • NathanTucci

    Hey Greg, nice analysis. Taking the weekly into account is a great thing to do here–most people get stuck in the smaller timeframes and don’t look for those bigger signals–so well done. Hope it shapes up for what you are looking for!

  • FXAnnie

    It appears the 3 EMA has crossed the 8 and 14 EMA on the daily. It appears a long buy is already in place

  • Greg Ryland

    Hi Nat, I am also waiting for the weekly doji high to be broken then I am long around .9310 after 60+ days in this trend and 1400+ pips, I believe it is time for the market to breath, I expect a pull back to the 50 fib line around .9800 level, cheers mate.

  • Eric Lambert

    Brad your analysis and Nathan’s are the two most wisest suggestions in here. I commend both of you Guys lets get this pair booh yah!!!!

  • NathanTucci

    Hey Brad, sounds like a good plan.. I am in a very similar boat. I think, as you hinted at, the downside has unlimited profit potential, so that is always appealing

  • Brad

    I won’t trade to the long side until I have a break and retest of 0.92773 with T-1 @ 0.93484 T-2 @ 0.94354 and T-3 @ 0.95215 now to the short side, to play it conservative a break below the low of 0.90006 retest then short down to 0.89281, 0.88557 then 0.87891 to start…then we’ll let price action decide what we do from there.

  • NathanTucci

    Sorry, Rav, I didn’t intend to waste your time certainly. Perhaps you could share something you are looking at?

  • NathanTucci

    Me too, Johny, but like a politician, I am ready to trade it to the upside too haha

  • NathanTucci

    Zane, is there something specific here that makes you confident enough to get in now? or just the overall trend power behind it?

  • NathanTucci

    Adam, I am more than willing to play the reversal here, but just not “sold” on it yet ๐Ÿ˜›

  • zane

    weekly still has a lot more room to go down i think. i may short before the break to get a better rpice and tarfet the bottom of the range at 89. thank for alert, good idea

  • rav

    no trad her to me. bad analisis

  • Adam

    looks like reversal to me, going long on break with .9500 target

  • Johny

    I am ready to trade this to the downside!!