Commodity Currency Crosses

Hello Traders,

What’s in store this week for the commodity crosses? Today’s focus is on the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.

For more information on the major currency pairs check out this link. For more details regarding DTT trade setups click here.


From the 4 hour chart perspective, price could easily be considered stuck in a consolidation zone.

11- 3- 2014 au

However, there are is a support trend line (magenta) that could provide a good reason for price to bounce back up.

Also, the AUDUSD had a bullish 250 pip weekly candle last week (low at +/- 0.8890 and a high at 0.9140) with a close roughly 30% from the high.

So in this way, [tweetable alt=””]the AUDUSD magenta trend line is the crucial bull-bear line. [/tweetable]. A break of that line could mean more consolidation or even (mild) downside. A bounce off of that line could equal a potential move up.

The main targets are:

1)      For downside: the bottoms

2)      For upside: the 50% and -27.2% confluence / 61.8% and -61.8% confluence


Will the CAD weakness continue?

11- 3- 2014 uc

There is a decent probability that the answer will be yes. Here are the main reasons:

1)      The USDCAD has a well establish uptrend with clear higher highs and higher lows (above purple lines)

2)      The USDCAD has a triangle chart pattern formation (orange lines)

3)      There is no divergence between the tops on the 8 hour chart

In most cases a triangle within a trend is a pause for more trend continuation.

a)      In case the triangle does break to the upside then the main target will be the -27.2% Fibonacci target at 1.14.

b)      The uptrend remains valid as long as price stays above the support lines (purple). Only a break of the support lines could alter the trend and increase likelihood of bigger consolidation or reversal.


The Kiwi has been very choppy in the last couple of months. All of this consolidation is in fact part of a bigger weekly triangle and price has been bouncing between its top and bottom.

11- 3- 2014 nu

But is there a turnaround looming?

Recent weekly price action however has been bullish and the last 5 weeks price has posted 4 decent bullish candles and only 1 smaller inside bearish candle. The NZDUSD is building on a decent trend on the lower time frames.

Conclusion: the classical clash between trend and support and resistance is in play again. Will the trend have sufficient momentum to break through the resistance? Or will the trend stop?

1)      If a break out does occur then the first target is the weekly top. A break of the top would mean that the Fibonacci targets are in vision.

2)      For the moment when looking at the 4 hour chart, the major levels to keep an eye on are the uptrend support lines (magenta) and the Fibonacci target plus weekly top (red).

11- 3- 2014 nu 2

How do you see the AUDUSD, USDCAD and/or NZDUSD?  Are you expecting CAD, AUD, CAD weakness or strength and why? What tools and concepts did you use to make your conclusion? Let us know down below in the comments section!

Thanks for sharing this article and wish you Good Trading!

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