Eur/Usd Weekly Preview


Fundamental Data and upcoming News:

Republican whips delayed a House of Representatives vote on the plan on Thursday night after failing to quell a rank-and-file conservative revolt.

House Republicans were meeting for closed-door crisis talks on Friday.

The fiscal fiasco leaves the US inching closer to a potentially catastrophic default on federal debt next Tuesday.

The White House has warned the government will run out of money to pay all its bills unless a $14.3tn (£8.7tn) borrowing limit is increased by 2 August.

The US treasury department is expected to unveil emergency plans explaining how the government would function if Congress does not agree to raise its borrowing limit.

Euro-sovereign debt fear is again dominating this mornings market. Moody’s has placed Spain’s Aa2 rating on review for a possible downgrade and has threatened to lower the ratings on four Spanish banks. Arguably not in the Greek boat just yet, Spanish 10-year yields have backed up +60bp so far this month. Once the market begins to lose confidence, yields creep much quicker, just look at Italy this week, surging Italian yields on speculation that Tremonti may quit.

Euro-zone inflation rate fell to +2.5% in July, after having climbed +2.7% in June, y/y. It’s still above the ECB’s target of just below +2%. Perhaps this may persuade Trichet and company that further tightening is not warranted over the coming months.

The EUR bulls should be more concerned now that the currency has failed to rally significantly on the back of inept Washington politicking doing everything it can to destroy trust in the dollar. What if the lawmakers finally get their act together and increase the debt ceiling?

Daily Chart Clues:

The Daily Eur/Usd chart shows that we are currently trading sidways which makes for some great opportunities for range trading.



Next we will look at the hourly chart pivot points these can be played for some great trades if you are patient and know what you are doing.

eur july 30

eur july 30

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