Hello Forex traders,
The first month of the year is closed and completed and the new trading year of 2014 has its first monthly candle’s high, low, close, and open. Last week’s FOMC statement sent the USD higher but is price action supporting this rally? Find out here below as we take a look at the monthly candles!
To review the monthly candles via a video, please click on this link.
The EURUSD posted a very bearish candle in January. The close of the candle closed very near the low, which adds bearish momentum to the mix. Another interesting observation is the lack of power to break through the resistance lines (magenta and orange) and the exact turn at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (green).
The EURUSD is still in an uptrend on this monthly chart, but there is a chance that the uptrend ended here which would mean bigger downside in the long run.
1) For that to happen, more downside confirmation is needed such as a break below the monthly low of November at 1.33 and later on a break below green.
2) The upside trend will most likely continue when price is able to push through the trend lines (orange and magenta).
The Cable also posted bearish monthly candles but it did it after breaking a wedge (purple) to the upside. Price is now caught in between major resistance (thick red) and support (purple and green). From this higher time frame perspective, price needs to break above resistance or below support for a better understanding of the long-term potential.
Whereas the USDJPY uptrend had lots of power at the end of 2013, the previous month of January could not sustain the same pace and it posted a bearish candle too (similar to EU and GU). The interesting aspect about the candles is this: the price action formation looks like railway track candlestick patterns, which indicate a bearish reversal.
Is this indeed the end of the uptrend? For the moment I am more inclined to give the uptrend the benefit of the doubt and regard this downside as a potential retracement. In such cases, it is best to place a Fibonacci retracement key from the breakout of the wedge to the top (blue Fib). The 38.2% and 50% Fib levels could easily be the turning spot for upside continuation. Failure for price to do so could mean a bigger consolidation zone or even trend reversal.
How do you view the USDJPY?
The Aussie posted yet another bearish monthly candle amidst a series of bearish candles. The downtrend is showing no signs of exhaustion as yet, which means that the Fib targets are the primary levels to aim for as the Aussie has wide open spaces (WOS) down below. As always though, be cautious of the possibility for price to correct last month’s candle before making a drop. Last month’s high is at around 0.9120-30.
Alright traders, before we wrap it up, please leave a comment down below in the comment section: what do you think of the USDJPY and other candles? Let us know here below.
Tomorrow we will be back with more monthly analysis on many of the major crosses such as EURJPY and GBPAUD. In the meantime, thank you for your attention and any of your comments and/or shares!
Wish you Good Trading!
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