Long-Term Forex View

Hello Forex Traders!

The trading month of August will soon finish. Be extra careful with trading this Friday as the last day of the week and month are considered high risk.

I hope you had a grand trading month with tons of pips and a fantastic rate of return and if reading this daily article contributed to that then I would love to hear your story down below! 🙂 If you did not, then realize that August is one of the toughest months to trade, together with December and January most likely. So do not get discouraged, as a new month with new opportunities is around the corner!!

Tomorrow we will dive into an educational topic so today I decided to focus on the monthly chart and draw up some long-term Forex analysis. The month of August still has 1,5 days of trading left so the monthly candles could look differently than the ones shown in this article, however the difference will most likely not be major.

EURUSD. Ever since the grand uptrend on the EURUSD earlier this century, the currency has been building a neat wedge or triangle with hefty moves up and down. This pattern has not see any continuation the last year due to EURUSD‘s lack of ability to break out of this monthly and weekly range environment.

29- 8- 2013 eurusd m

GBPUSD. The GBPUSD has a similar wedge or triangle but there is a key difference between the EURUSD and the Cable. The wedge on the EURUSD is built after an uptrend, whereas the wedge of the Cable is hanging at the bottom of a downside impulse. That wedge was broken in February this year but the break has so far not seen any continuation. Will the GU be able to break out and continue down?

29- 8- 2013 gu m

USDJPY. Obviously the USDJPY has been in a massive uptrend since fall 2012.  The currency travelled close to 2,000 pips to the upside, but does it have more momentum and energy to continue? In my opinion the odds of a continuation of the uptrend are high. This type of impulse usually does not end without a last push up and the -0.272 target right at the monthly resistance trend line might well be the target.

29- 8- 2013 usdjy m

AUDUSD. The Aussie has been falling hard the last 4 months. How much downside could a Forex trader still expect, one might ask. Usually a trend continues until it meets a support or resistance zone which it is not able to break. On this chart we are able to identify support levels at the 500 Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8550 and at the 618 Fib at 0.7950. The latter is quite close to the 0.80 round psychological number and the monthly bottom as well.

29- 8- 2013 au m

USDCHF. The Swissy downtrend has unfolded itself in a very dramatic setting over the years and maybe even decades with a massive dip at the end of trend. Since the reversal back up in the summer of 2011, the USDCHF has basically gone sideways for 2 years (from this monthly perspective at least). The traingle or wedge is indicated on the charts (purple). A break of the triangle would be an interesting trade, primarily if it were to break to the upside. The target would be the 786 Fib retracement level. So far the currency has respected the 500 and 618 neatly. A break to downside could be possible as well, but I do believe that downside would swiftly encounter support. If not from the market, then from the Swiss bank 🙂

29- 8- 2013 uc m

EURAUD. The EURAUD had a relatively tight range between 2001 and 2007. That drastically and dramatically changed in the fall of 2008 when the EURAUD spiked up, only to see it receive a massive rejection and spike down. The 10,000 pip fall lasted 3,5 years. The most recent move up the last 4 months has been very impressive and the 3,500 pip movement has provided us Forex traders with tons of pips. Our trading room members are well aware of that as we capitalized on this bull trend ever since the beginning. Despite the up move, there does seem to be resistance closely such as the 382 Fibonacci retracement level at +/- 1.5250 and the major bottoms of the range at around 1.5450 to 1.5650.

29- 8- 2013 euraud m

EURGBP. The EURGBP is at the top of a down sloping trend channel, which means that it is at a bounce or break spot. A break to the upside could see the EURGBP move towards parity. A bounce could see the currency pair fall back to the bottom of the channel. Both trades are in fact interesting and have tons of space. We will have to wait and see when the break or bounce finally occurs.

29- 8- 2013 eg m

USDCAD. The Loonie has broken out of the weekly wedge but it is running into horizontal resistance at the moment. From the monthly perspective, this currency pair seems to be stuck in a tight squeeze.

29- 8- 2013 UCAD M

XAUUSD. The fall of gold has halted and reversed. XAUUSD has rebounded from its 1180 lows into the 1400 area. This commodity will most likely find resistance and move down to make a lower high before bigger upside can expected.

29- 8- 2013 xu m


Please take a look at this article for a full scale analysis on the USD index and here for more USD news.

Is there any particular chart that you would like to see from the monthly perspective? If yes, please write down the particular pair down below in the comment section and we will examine that pair in Monday’s article!

Thanks for reading and sharing and wish you all Good Trading!

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