Short Possibility On AUDUSD?

Today we might get some opportunity to enter the market with some short setup forming already on AUDUSD pair. This is a medium trade which means if we enter this trade, it will last around 2-3 days since from my point of view, I spot this opportunity from the 4H.

First let’s us see the weekly chart. We see that after a nice run to the upside, a shooting star has finally forming. This is last week’s candle. What does this means? well, to me it is means that the nice run up has finally begin to loss some strength and the momentum has begin to change to the downside.

Second, if we look at the 4H chart, There is Head & Shoulder pattern or 1-2-3 pattern forming on this medium time frame. This adds some more sureness for me to seek for the short entry on this pair. Not to mention, if we zoom in to look for more clues, we can see that this pair is definitely on bearish trend currently, price is rejected at an area where previous highs and lows forms, also at around this area, there is a weekly pivot point there.

From the lower time frame, the 15 minutes, we can see that price rejection happens quite many times at around these levels and also my MA’s study tells me that trend is also begin to show itself because the MA’s is widening from each other.

If you are into this trade, you can try to put your stop loss at around 0.99000 and take profit 1 at yesterday’s low 0.96628 and take profit 2 at 0.96017

Anyway, this is just my opinion. Remember to be always careful out there…
Safe trade….

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  • parman

    Well Casey, that turned out to be a very good call from what I can tell. what I got out of this possible short trade, was to look for a short when the price gets to that down trend line. It hit it on the 21st between 10 to 10:15 am by only a few pips, which is some what lucky. From there it sold off for the next 8 hours for 100+ pips……funny no props from the peanut gallery.

  • Otto

    Casey, eventhough I must disagree that your Weekly shows a doji and not necessarily a shooting star, the Daily showed two bars looking like shooting stars. Wit this in mind I share your opinion that this is a short possibility over the shortterm, because it is countertrend when considering the longer term or a trend reversal is in the forming. Overall I favor the downside and when it picks up momentum it could become a severe move with great potential.

  • HG

    I disagree with shorting A/U at this time. Since the RBA did not raise the interest rate this month and the market is expecting a raise in couple days, why not trade other pairs for now? The probability of the market testing 1.00 again is very high. Why not buy the rumors and sell the news? And collect a little rollover until the rate is announced.

  • Chris

    G… is just an insight. Why don’t you follow the writer on and find out if he entered the trade? Let us know after you do that.

  • Walter

    Well put Ggillian!

  • Walter


    I subscribe to your feeds thru RSS, can you publish your contents full page so i dont have to hit the “read more” or “[…] ”


  • Ggillian

    “Short Possibility on AUD/USD?”
    “If you are in this trade you can try…”
    “Anyways, this is just my opinion…”

    Sounds like a lack of conviction.
    Is the writer actually short or going to update us when they enter short?

    “if we enter this trade, it will last 2-3 days…”
    So three days from now, if AUD/USD is lower, this will be considered
    brilliant analysis?

    Winners Edge Trading… a resource for traders… there is plenty of analysis on the net,
    How about some conviction… it’s ok to be wrong?
    I took a short of AUD/USD at .9865, I think it is safe to short anywhere between .9870 to .9850 for a three day profit target of at least .9770, stoploss at .9900; based upon my above analsysis.

  • GSPajon

    Casey…I disagree with your assessment of the price action signal on the weekly chart. What you’ve shown here looks like a doji, and as the current candle has not yet closed its anybody’s guess how the week may finish. Should the current week finish down, significantly penetrating the body of the prior bullish candle you MIGHT have an evening star, which is bearish, however, until that signal is complete, its a bit early to say the weekly chart is showing any exhaustion or even bearish signals.

    The only thing I would say for sure is the doji indicates some weakening bullish sentiment but has not yet turned bearish.