Some thoughts on the oil spill.

Some thoughts on the oil spill.

Are we being told the truth about the oil spill? How bad is it really?  What is the effect of all this?  How about the cost?  I would like to take a moment and jump off of the subject of currencies here for this one article and talk about something that really concerns and impacts ALL of us. We all know by now about the oil spill. It has been raging for about 2 months now. With a multitude of various estimates of just how MUCH oil is leaking on a daily basis. Estimates are all over the place from a low of 100,000 gallons a day, to estimates that will boggle the mind.  I have done some MINOR research on the Internet for many hours now, from Dozens of different websites,  If you do the same, you could hear input from BP itself, to a host of government agencies, and also some various websites that are downright alarmist.

It does APPEAR that BP might have known about this in advance (or maybe had some IDEA that something like this COULD have happened) For there was a lot of selling in advance of the companies shares. I found one website that listed every oil spill since 1972 and just how many was very interesting to see. It looks like we are at about a low of 6 to a high of 17 every YEAR in the more recent years (last decade). This surely dwarfs them all by far. So far it is almost incomprehensible.  Obviously this is the worst disaster ever. So, I would like to take a moment and look at a few key things:

This is over a mile under the water and salt water weighs MORE than 9 pounds per gallon. The well was drilled MILES below the strata. They hit a MAJOR oil pocket… one of the largest, most productive ever. There are estimates that the oil pressure at the well head was OVER 70,000 PSI ! It does appear that there is no science on earth that can possibly cap off a pressure of 70,000 psi. It does APPEAR that this intense pressure has fractured not only the oil well casing in multiple places, but there are some folks that are saying that the entire ocean floor is  cracked in a multitude of places and that there are oil plumes spread over about a 20 mile radius.  This is staggering and totally uncontainable

There is one sight I went to that stated that satalittes and other sources are tracking some kind of an under water “bubble” that is supposedly tens of feet high and about 20 miles around and is (rather alarmistly preaching… I might add) saying that there is a possibility of explosion that would make Mt. Saint Helens look like a joke. They are speaking of the possibility of tital waves over 400 to 600 feet high and total destruction of the shoreline, etc etc… I surely hope that is not going to come to pass. I guess anything is possible. We are dealing with an unknown thing here.

The estimates regarding just how much oil is leaking have done NOTHING but keep going up. They started small and have since reached estimates of 500,000 gallons per day. One man who puts forth a convincing argument, states on a video that the numbers are totally fudged and that it is in excess of 4 MILLION gallons a day (gasp!). This is just about impossible to contain. The cost is going to be catastrophic. Actually there are no words to describe this. That last word was an understatement.

Environmentally speaking is probably the largest consideration. It does appear that there are several vary poisonous gases that are coming up out of the ground along with the oil. Many of these are super dangerous to humans and wildlife and we cannot handle breathing 5 to 10 parts per billion of this stuff and the EPA estimates this week for these gases in this region are around 3,000 to over 4,000 PPB of these gases. So, this is obviously NOT a good thing to be heading into our atmosphere.  Not a good thing for the wind to sweep this over Florida.

Then there is the cleanup process itself which is getting really very little of this.  There is an effluent that they spray out, and I have been reading that this is pretty toxic stuff in and of itself.  Well, I guess me and my family are probably not going to eat fish again in our entire lives.  YUK!

Now the oil its self, is a bad thing, washing up on beaches and killing fish is definitely bad. Poisoning our environment is  a total bummer.  One post I saw in the Miami herald, said that the cost to TOURISM of Florida would be almost 200 billion dollars, for they expected the tourist flow to Florida’s gulf coast cities and towns, to be cut in HALF. That is just Florida alone, not even taking into account Louisiana and other states. Also calling for thousands of laid off and unemployed persons to be added to our already large unemployment pool. So, there is a cost to our economy

Amazingly (and I can hardly believe this) there is talk of them trying to drill into the the strata at a sideways, angle and sink a small nuclear device into it in some kind of attempt to cauterize this wound. This is inconceivable to me.  My brain does NOT understand that.  I am thinking:  NUKE??? An oil pocket???!!!  Isn’t that explosive?  HOW many Billions of barrels of oil are down there?  Makes no sense to me at all. Can’t even comprehend that they could be thinking about such a thing. But, I will just leave that to the brainiac scientists to figure out, IF they can. According to one source, a bp insider is scared to death about trying to do this nuke thing.  Stating that if they crack this strata again and even more…. that it will just magnify the problem MORE than double.  Also, if the nuke does not work, and makes multiple more fractures, they are saying it will be a nightmare of epic proportions, and that this oil will just flow forever and NOT be stopped.  (Forever…. they are saying this is A-biotic oil, that is oil that is somehow being manufactured by the pressure of the earth and is supposedly a continual thing.  There is one camp of folks out there that are saying that oil is NOT a fossil fuel and that we are NOT running out, that “peak” oil is nothing more than a myth, and that under the earth somehow generated by the pressure, is an ENDLESS supply. Again, whether this is true or not, I certainly do not know.  I am just a trader.  I am just giving here a report on what I was able to see by perusing a few dozen websites and reading a bunch of articles and watching a half a dozen videos. There is a LOT of information out there. One things for sure, this is a real problem and is not getting solved overnight, this could go on for quite some time.

Lastly, there is the threat of a hurricane. When that happens, and a nice big killer storm comes into the gulf region and whips up all that oil ladden water and starts churning it at a hundred miles an hour and picks it up and scatters it all over the lands, well, I don’t know what to say. This is really bad.  I am TRYING to think what this will do to the woodlands, to our crops of food, to our animals that we raise for food. Again, YUK!

Now, as a trader, and one who is attempting to think like Livermore (the greatest trader of all time)  I wish I had a time machine and a million dollars, because I would have shorted BP stock INSTANTLY. (hey, I got to fit trading in here somewhere!  LOL)   A look at their stock chart and we can see the value of their shares has been lopped in half and is still declining.  Like Livermore said: prices are never to cheap to start selling.  To me (as a former stock trader myself)  This looks like the stock could continue to bleed off for a year or more and head down to the teens or, who knows? Maybe at some point we will see their stock dip below $10 a share.

So, in conclusion I do not really trust my government to protect me or to always level with me and tell me the truth. Are they lying about how bad it really is?  I don’t know, but it is possible. How much effect will this have on all of us?  Probably larger than we can imagine right now.  How much is it all going to cost? I don’t think it is possible to come up with any valid estimates. They will most likely keep risisng higher and higher as the weeks and months go by.

Not going to list every website I checked, you can do your own study on this if you feel like it. There is no end to the ammount of info out there. But, I just thought I would pass this on to foks… 2 decent websites that have lots of info on various subjects is: and  Have a Christian view, mixed in with mostly being against our corrupt government cronies and they try and give you news that you won’t always get on TV (the nations propaganda machine).

Thanks for taking the time to read and please leave comments and or links to other information that might be good to look at. Have a great weekend eveyone. Michael Storm aka Robinhood.

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