War, all out war!

Its scary out there! ALL the nations are at war!  Don’t think so?  I tell you it is true.  We have discussed before the trillions of dollars of capital in search of gains and a return. Buy and Hold is dead!  These trillions are constantly on the move. Trillions. Hedge funds, Private capital, Institutions, Exporters, Governments, Central Banks. etc…  All at war in this giant zero sum game, trying to kill the other guy and take his money.  Read all the interesting chapters in the market wizards and see those great traders trying to out think their competition in psychological warfare when 50 million was on the line.  As small time players ( we deal in well under “twenty” (twenty million) don’t we?  I mean, putting on 10 lots scares me! LOL. As small time players we lose sight of how violent this trading can be. Many know that most brokers are not your friend and will take the other side of your trade (never putting out to the market) just like the bucket shops of the early 1900’s. They want your money.  Well, the Governments are no different.

Folks the heads of Governments put their minds together and come up with a plan. A strategy. Then they WORK IT, for all it is worth. Trying to make a ton in the process. Why? Why to increase their  reserves of course. So they can have MORE bullets to fire (ever play the board game “Risk”?)

The Japanese Gov. put out lots of “talk” , lots of  “jawboning” about the threat of intervention. Then, they did NOTHING  for days. The yen strengthened again as some lost hope that it was going to come. Then when hopes were dashed they “poured it on.” Right as they started doing this, a rival decided to engage in battle to thwart them. Who is this rival?  China. China starts buying up Japanese Government bonds and debt securities putting a bid on the yen when the BOJ was trying to weaken it.  In fact Japans Finance minister was quite verbal about this and made some rather harsh comments regarding this. Why? He’s mad at them. Their is a long standing animosity between these two countries and their rulers.  And well, that just wasn’t nice(!) Read: we are busy trying to weaken our currency so “back off!”

Now we know that their is a war. You see its an export war. China wants to be the top dog of this export business, so they can continue to gain more of the wealth of the world selling their cheaply made stuff that breaks quickly. Not just to us Americans but the whole world. They don’t want competition!  Japan’s trying to step on their toes and get a bigger slice of the pie.  They WANT and truly NEED a weaker currency in order to compete on the global markets. you see, this is economic war. We all want MORE so we can stockpile MORE OIL reserves, More weapons, more whatever it is that they want.  It really doesn’t matter.

Next case:  SNB. They saw what the  BOJ did, watched how they waged this war. Did something similar. They did NOT raise rates (oh, yeah, there was another side in this war. Someone had “leaked” that the SNB WOULD raise rates… but that was a lie.)  Just as I said in the room yesterday, that would be financial suicide. Instead they got all “dovish” and talked down their inflation forecasts and their growth. “Oh, we REALLY are not doing that good. Really. You can trust us. And we see the result of this VERBAL warfare. Hey look, all is acceptable here. It can be verbal warfare or real bullets of dumping currency on the market. Whatever works. And work it did! Swissy dove against all other currencies. Everyone has an agenda.

Which brings me to my main point. DON”T YOU BELIEVE IT!  yep. that’s my point. Propaganda, lies and manipulation abounds in this war.  Strategies are formed. Strategies with BILLIONS of dollars on the line. They are not like us, just trying to make a hundred pips in a day on a standard lot or so. Oh no. This is really much bigger than that. Strategies are formed and then Executed.  I am increasing becoming convinced that as a pro trader (10 years under my belt), that I need to pay far more attention to the macro side. The geopolitical side. I need to focus on the AGENDA. So, in the weeks that come ahead…. Ask yourself who has the Agenda? What are they trying to do? What could this strategy be? Who stands to gain? Who stands to lose?  Lets ask some questions folks!  Put our brains to good use and learn to think outside what they are disseminating to the masses.

Alright. I am done. bulk of this message is out.  I leave you with this last thought:  A certain party of market makers, you know the group, “Goldie”  (you know, the ones “that do God’s work”) has come out and said that the Fed is going to buy one trillion dollars of treasury securities (the much talked about QE II). Now, I ask you, does this make sense? Absolutely not!  The fed does not want to do this. There are to many reasons this is most likely NOT so.  I think in a few days, weeks, whatever. We will see the reason for these comments.  The next time commentators comment, or “news” is released, ask yourself what is the agenda, what is the plan.  As for me, I am ready to take the other side!  Thanks for reading and till next time. CAREFUL, THOUGHTFUL trading.  Robinhood.

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  • Darryl

    Great info Patricia. News & TV have produced a society of consumers period!!! Many females care only about shopping, and many men’s top agenda is sports & womanizing. All of this thanks to Madison Avenue. Thanks everyone else on here too. I think we have enough knowledge here to produce our own documentary. I’m sure we’d make Michael Moore proud.. lol

  • Michael S.

    WOW! that is enlightening! Thanks man, and thanks everyone for all the posts. These people in power are virtual criminals. I read stuff everyday. Stuff like the chairman of the house ways and means , has cheated on his taxes for untold amounts and hid records for 10 years, under reported, etc… and so on. And the people in power are the most corrupt, yes, it is so. No wonder “liar” and “lawyer” are so closely connected in our language. lol

  • Gmllk

    Jeremiah 10:23, 2Tim 3:1-5…Dan.2:44…….what more would you expect

  • Anonymous

    sincerely i totally agreed with you
    this is FACTUALLY TRUE hope they will not want to stop diseemination of this information you have released to us

  • brian

    well put!

  • Darryl

    Right on Michael. At this particular time in the history of man, politicians and other leaders give us EXEMPLARY models of the absolute WRONG path to be on. Fortunately most of us are REALLY human and not usurpers of our fellow mans life & livelyhood.
    My business has been to provide property services on foreclosed homes. In August of 2008, my company had nearly 300 properties under contract for ongoing landscape maintenance and other services. Today we have five, that’s a 5 with no zeros. Is it because the foreclosures have all been sold? Not even close! Right now for every foreclosure that is on the market, there are 10-15 that are not on the market.
    Why? Understanding this from a logical point of view is not easy. One would surmise that the banks would prefer to liquidate these non-performing loans, right? Not exactly. Let me see if I can explain how this works, and I’ll be using California as an example, since I live here and am most familiar with the local chain of events. In the description below, we are assuming sufficient time has passed for a home to have been foreclosed on, which in California is approximately 7-8 months.
    1. Very few full foreclosure term (8 months with no payments made) homes are taken back by the banks in the minimum time period. I know of one person who hasn’t made a single payment in over 2 years and has not even been given her NOD, (Notice of Default) which typically is served after the 3rd consecutive month in which no payment has been received.
    2. When a property has been legally taken back by the bank, the house is not put on the market with any sense of urgency. The reason for this is what killed my (and many others) business.
    a. When a house is sold after becoming a foreclosure, the banks must sell it at market value, called “Mark to Market”. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marktomarket.asp
    b. When a house is retained (by the bank) instead of selling it, then the financial institution (imho institution is the perfect word here because they should all be “institutionalized”) is allowed (by law) to evaluate, said property, as they see fit. This practice is exactly why the “Too Big to Fail” are still in business.
    Example: In late 2008, I attempted to assist a friend in selling her house by way of a “Short Sale”. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/pf/08/purchase-short-sale-property.asp We located a solid buyer that had great credit, was putting 30% down, and paying approximately $5k over market value ($175k). The bank dragged out the process for nearly six months before foreclosing. When they took the property to auction, on the courthouse steps, it didn’t sell. So, the bank proceeded to place the unsold asset on the balance sheet at an evaluation of $234k, almost $60k more than they had been offered and $65k more than market value. Huh?
    3. Here’s how this works. In 2008, when billions of $ were given to (mostly) the largest banks, the banks, in essence, closed their doors to those looking for loans. Now this makes them hoarders, correct?
    And now for the punchline, imho the likely outcome of all of these foreclosures, if they were being handled in the same manner as they have been for the past 50 years.
    • Home prices would fall significantly lower than they are right now. In some areas prices are already off of the peak as much as 70%. (i.e. parts the California cities of Sacramento, Riverside & San Bernardino).
    • Lower prices would encourage more to default on their homes, realizing that the likelyhood of their house ever reaching what they owe on it, is slim to none. After all, who in their right mind wants to leave a legacy of an over encumbered home to their heirs?
    • With the REAL property values finally being disclosed, many of the “Too Big to Fail” corporations, would do exactly that, fail!
    My first thought, when this crossed my mind, was they’d get what they deserve. I mean, after all, weren’t they the ones that were a very large part getting the ball rolling on this whole mess anyway?
    Unfortunately they would not be the only ones to fail. Should they fall, more likely than not, the entire country would be in significantly worse shape than it is today. How bad? Nobody knows for sure. Let’s just say, Real Bad. The likes of which none of us (that grew up in this country) have ever witnessed.
    Now is the right time to get serious and vocal about how we are being used and abused by many of those in power… Maybe power does corrupt?

  • Glenn

    Wow Michael. Bad day today? Just kidding. I agree with you 100%. Things are changing very rapiidly right now. I believe that you know what I’m talking about. Can’t wait to read your next rave! lol

  • Michael S.

    YES! YES! you have spoken the absolute truth, well said my friend. You have a great mind and can think realistically for yourself. Gov. must hate you, lol. You are surely not what they want. I agree with everything you said. It is simply the truth. SO, many are so ignorant of these things, it almost makes me want to cry. The dumbing down of Americans is done on purpose. I can document and prove that. It is time we wake up, and as traders, we need to wake up too! This will increase our profits, and help us take back some of what our countries are stealing from us with the THEFT of our PROPERTY through taxes. What is a souls labor? It is PROPERTY. Taxes steal in a “legal” way our work. One third of our lives for a heartless master. Don’t mean to be off on a rabbit trail, but my eyes are seriously open. They have been opening for a few years now and it just gets wider each day and passing week. I can hardly believe how much we have been lied to about so very many things. Its almost like one of those spooky movies where the whole community is living a lie. (I have seen a half dozen movies like this). We are living it.

  • Fxfx

    hi casey, that is exactly what i was talking lately to few traders(friends).as a trader i think what we hear are toxic information, to prevent to stuck in the web is better to trade what we see not what we think,we should not forget money management risk management.
    good luck to all of us

  • Dudley

    Michael, great article. This has been going on since time immemorial. They (the big boys aka ‘Goldie’) will manipulate the media and the poor suckers (us) believe it. We get fooled so that they can make even more money from us. I always view news release with healthy scepticism. As you say. Always ask – ‘What is their agenda?’

  • Patricia

    Well done, Michael. I always strive to see behind the “news”, as the news is currently little more than a mind game, played by the big players against the public, which must be brought somehow to do what they want us to do. It is much more convenience and safe for them to use propaganada instead of guns to get us to perform for them (like idiotic puppets). The sad truth is that the American people, who are convinced they know exactly what is going on in this country, haven’t heard the truth for so long that many of us are incapable of recognizing truth any longer. We have been separated from what is real, somewhat like the North Koreans (it’s surreal, isn’t it?). I am saddened by the pathetic charades that now dominate our news media.

    You got that right about war, also. It is, of course, geopolitical and economic warfare – which are in essence class warfare. Simply put, it is them against us, against the American people, and against all the peoples of the world. I believe this is the mental construct of the ruling class. They barely conceal it from us, in fact. We simply agree not to notice.

    Their guiding purpose, I believe, is to devise pretexts to create ever more actual warfare, as war is, and has historically been, tremendously profitable for this class of people. The American public – most particularly our sons – are destined to be their cannon fodder (and have been for decades now). Cannon fodder do not need to be educated, hence the lack of real interest in our educational system…

    If you read Chomsky, he points out very clearly that they have played this same game for decades. We never catch on. There is always a new class of terrorists and a new pretext for war. America’s most decorated general, General Smedley Butler, wrote a book about this in the 1930s, called War is a Racket. This great man also thwarted an attempt by people on Wall Street (including Bush’s granddaddy) to overthrow FDR and install a fascist regime in the US in about 1933. The congress investigated this and, in the end, covered the whole thing up. This great man is never found in our history books. No coincidence. We have been lied to for at least a century – since, I imagine, the creation of the federal reserve.

    America may be the world’s biggest bully, but the truth is we are pawns to the entire Western ruling elite. We are their military arm. They hold us in the greatest contempt and think we are terminally stupid – so stupid that we will do anything they ask and at any cost to our country. They know the Europeans will have no part of this. We are more isolated and less savvy about political affairs and much easier to manipulate.

    This is how I see it. One can certainly disagree.

    The more poor we become, the more our sons might be willing to go to war for them. I believe this is part of their logic. It is constant warfare they plan for America and nothing more. Economic ruin, currency collapse, hyperinflation – all the anticipated outcomes of their economic maneuvering serve a very useful purpose in the overthrow of democracy. And, in the end, there will be more warfare and more pretexts for more warfare… such as 9/11, which, I will assert boldly, was nothing more than a pretext for ongoing warfare. I mean, they actually warned many people in advance not to fly that day. This was in the mainstream press shortly after 9/11. Like so much else, we agreed to forget we ever read that.

    Anyone who has bothered to read the accumulated evidence of 9/11 knows this. It is actually fairly well-known the world over, but not here.

    We might expect an increase in so-called terrorist attacks following the next election. I expect this. A lot depends on the public. I believe they go precisely as far as they feel they can go and no farther.

    I hope this is not too far afield from what you were seeking.

    Several years ago, it occurred to me that Robin Hood should run for president… and now here you are…!

  • Okehiedon

    Excellent, Excellent. Just as I thought.